I think that it is unlikely that China will do this.
I think that it is more-likely that Beijing will seek to dominate Russia, not to conquer it. China has a 2023 GDP of $17 trillion, Russia of $2 trillion. Russia has ensured that it has to rely on China for various things for at least some time. China doesn’t need to invade to see increasing influence in Russia moving forward.
As Western sanctions increasingly isolate Russia, it has become highly dependent on China for trade and economic support, particularly in energy exports sold at discounted prices.
China has capitalized on Russia’s isolation by expanding its investments and economic influence within Russia, with Chinese companies increasing their share of Russian market participation. This economic relationship shows an imbalance, with China benefiting from favorable trade terms.
Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine have deeply impacted Russia’s economy, as seen in the weakening ruble, increasing reliance on China, and signs of Russia potentially becoming a subordinate economic partner to China rather than an equal.
That’s maybe not as evocative as the image of Chinese tanks rumbling into Russia, but I think that it’s probably a much more realistic geopolitical issue for Russia.
I agree with you. Military deployments are expensive. Why bother when you already control the trade relationship? China is in a position to get anything it wants from Russia. Hell, if they want territory they can probably get it the same way they do everywhere else - business deals.
I think that it is unlikely that China will do this.
I think that it is more-likely that Beijing will seek to dominate Russia, not to conquer it. China has a 2023 GDP of $17 trillion, Russia of $2 trillion. Russia has ensured that it has to rely on China for various things for at least some time. China doesn’t need to invade to see increasing influence in Russia moving forward.
https://jamestown.org/program/russias-fiscal-dependence-on-china-grows/
That’s maybe not as evocative as the image of Chinese tanks rumbling into Russia, but I think that it’s probably a much more realistic geopolitical issue for Russia.
I agree with you. Military deployments are expensive. Why bother when you already control the trade relationship? China is in a position to get anything it wants from Russia. Hell, if they want territory they can probably get it the same way they do everywhere else - business deals.
Practice / testing new equipment?
Maybe they’ll simply buy territory from Russia, in a similar manner to the Alaska purchase?
A century or so of humiliation, you might say