OpenAI’s Latest Model Shows AGI Is Inevitable. Now What?
The question is no longer whether AGI will arrive, but whether we’ll be ready when it does.
I’m also confident that sooner or later, we will wind up with AGI.
I am, however, a lot less confident that this has much to do with any model that we have today.
It sounds like there are several issues.
The flood insurance covered floodwater damage to the home. In this case, the floodwater never touched the home. It doesn’t cover the river changing its course and producing erosion to the terrain that renders the house unsafe, which is what happened here (albeit after a flood).
Regardless of when the policy took effect, “USAA would have denied and FEMA upheld the denial because water didn’t enter the property or damage the foundation,” Kevin says.
Maybe homeowners who purchase homes along a river should also be required to purchase insurance against damage from the river changing course. Rivers do change course – I remember once reading something on property law as to how to deal with property boundary issues resulting from river course changes.
Flood insurance apparently only becomes active after 30 days and here, apparently it didn’t become active until after the flood, so even if the insurance had covered the scope of the damage, it wouldn’t have been active. Having a delay might make sense – insurance is aimed to mitigate long-term risk. You don’t want someone getting into the game of doing short-term predictions based on some kind of information they have about specific flood policy and buying a bunch of insurance right before a flood. But you don’t want to have someone owning a property without being covered by insurance, so maybe the transfer of ownership should also be on a 30 day delay, so that there isn’t an uncovered period.
I think that those are both policy at least related to insurance. Maybe the second issue isn’t insurance itself.
Then there’s a separate issue they raised and which most of the article deals with, which is that purchasing houses in areas that are going to be impacted by climate change is not a great idea:
“The fundamental problem here is that you have properties that in a fixed period of time are going to have no real value because of the risk of fire or flood,”
I mean, that’s maybe a perfectly reasonable issue – maybe people need to stop buying and building beachfront property unless it’s hardened against higher water levels.
The problem listed here, according to the article, is that federal mortgage subsidies apparently are not attempting to price in risk to the mortgage borrower.
Most mortgages in the U.S. are backed by the federal government, including this loan, which was backed by the Department of Veteran Affairs.
Outside of requiring flood insurance in high risk zones, the GSEs “have assiduously chosen not to price different geographies differently,” Keys says. An area at risk of extreme heat is not punished with higher interest rates and tougher lending standards.
The insurance industry is just not making money, according to the Insurance Information Institute. In 2023, insurers paid out $1.11 in claims for every dollar they made in premiums. This year is expected to be the fifth year in a row with underwriting losses, the institute determined.
When these pressures mount to an intolerable level, insurers stop writing new policies, as companies have done in California, Florida and elsewhere. Policies written by state-based last-resort insurance plans doubled to 2.7 million from 2018 to 2023.
So this isn’t what affected the people here. But it’s probably a fair issue to raise.
If you want to get a beachfront house that’s got a high risk of being wiped out, if the government is going to subsidize mortgages, the government should probably be either saying “I’m going to require a higher interest rate from the borrower on anything I back to cover risk” or simply refuse to be in the mortgage-subsidizing game for properties in high-risk areas at all.
Honestly, I’m not completely sold that the government should subsidize mortgages in the first place. There are some arguments in favor, like maybe people care more about a neighborhood if they have a financial stake in a house, but it’s also a negative for labor mobility.
kagis
Here’s a CRS document saying that basically the rationale for the benefit of federal subsidy for mortgages isn’t all that clear, lists the three major rationales and some problems with them:
I’m sure that someone, somewhere has made a Bluetooth gizmo that vibrates on calls.
kagis
Yup, they appear to be out there.
https://www.eastersealstech.com/2018/03/01/ditto-clear-bluetooth-vibrating-cell-phone-signaler/
I like both of them myself, albeit Starfield more.
It sounds like not, or at least not in the sense that you’re probably thinking, of it being pro-Islam:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/20/europe/germany-christmas-market-car-intl-latam/index.html
The suspect is yet to be formally identified, but German media have named him as Taleb A., following the convention in Germany of withholding the full name of suspects in criminal cases. He is thought to have acted alone, according to German authorities.
The German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser on Saturday described the man as “an Islamophobe.”
It also doesn’t sound like it’s one of those guys who gets rejected for asylum or couldn’t get a job, since he had permanent residency and apparently had been employed:
The suspect had permanent residency in the country, according to Tamara Zieschang, the interior minister of Saxony-Anhalt state, and worked as a doctor in Bernburg, a small town about 25 miles south of Magdeburg.
The word balatro wasn’t made up for this game – it’s a Latin term for “joker”.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/balatro
It’ll be an “a” sound in that word, not a “u”.
After having invaded, is Russia more powerful, secure, and wealthy or less so than it was prior to the invasion?
checks WP
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermes
Hermes’s epithet Argeïphontes (Ancient Greek: Ἀργειφόντης; Latin: Argicida), meaning “slayer of Argus”,[75][76] recalls the slaying of the hundred-eyed giant Argus Panoptes by the messenger god. Argus was watching over the heifer-nymph Io in the sanctuary of Queen Hera, herself in Argos. Hermes placed a charm on Argus’s eyes with the caduceus to cause the giant to sleep, after which he slew the giant with a harpe.[14]
They did.
Fallout 76, a multiplayer game, predates Starfield, a single-player game.
kagis
Hmm.
It sounds like the water shortage thing isn’t a recent issue on the island, but has been a long-standing problem stemming from a rapidly expanding population that’s just been exacerbated by the cyclone:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/19/climate/mayotte-water-crisis-drought-climate/index.html
The island is grappling with its worst drought since 1997. Its two water reservoirs have reached a “critical level of decline” – one is at 7% of capacity and the other at 6%, according to the most recent estimates, and they are on the verge of drying up.
It has led to drastic water cuts. Residents only have access to water for around 18 hours at a time every couple of days, according to a schedule published by the Prefecture, the local subdivision of the French government. Many say what little water they have is often contaminated and undrinkable.
I don’t think that shipping in bottled water is probably an economic long-term solution compared to doing desalination locally.
kagis
According to this, it looks like they’re building a desalination plant. If it keeps to schedule, it’s supposed to be operational in a year.
Stereau to supply Mayotte with 10,000 m3 of drinking water a day
The contract awarded to Stereau amounts to €36 million excluding tax. The project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, will significantly improve the supply of drinking water on the island and reduce water shortages. The operation of the plant will be managed by Saur France for an initial period of three years, with the option to renew the contract for an additional two years, in one-year increments.
It sounds like a lot of the issue is that life in Mayotte, while maybe not fantastic compared to mainland France, is a hell of a lot more appealing than in a lot of nearby countries, so people from nearby poorer countries show up there, and the infrastructure hasn’t been built out quickly enough to keep pace with population growth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayotte
The issue of illegal immigration became very important in local political life in the 2010s and 2020s which led France to organize Operation Wuambushu.
In 2019, with an annual population growth of 3.8%, half the current population was less than 17 years old. In addition, 48% of the population were foreign nationals. Most of the immigrants come from neighboring Island state of Comoros, many illegally. Despite being France’s poorest department, Mayotte is much richer than other neighboring East African countries and has developed French infrastructure and welfare system, making it a tempting destination for Comorans and other East Africans living in poverty in the region. The department faces enormous challenges.
According to an Institut national de la statistique et des etudes economiques (National Institute of Economic Statistics Studies of France - INSEE) report published in 2018, 84% of the population live under the poverty line according to French standards, compared to 16% in metropolitan France, 40% of dwellings are corrugated sheet metal shacks, 29% of households have no running water, and 34% of the inhabitants between the age of 15 and 64 do not have a job. These difficult living conditions mainly concern the large population of illegal migrants who crowd into shanty towns.
Lately he cought me in the office eating sweets and started to educate me how bad sugar is.
I mean, people do tend to eat more sugar than they probably should, but the main artificial sweetener that I see used in candies is xylitol, which is, unfortunately, also a laxative. Eat more than a few xylitol-sweetened candies at one sitting, and one’s in for diarrhea.
I assume that we don’t have an artificial sweetener in 2024 that both avoids having a laxative effect and has the appropriate properties to subsititute for sugar in candies. I’d be delighted if someone would manage to develop one, though.
What flesh?
I expect that they’re referencing this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cigarette_smoking_for_weight_loss
Cigarette smoking for weight loss is a weight control method whereby one consumes tobacco, often in the form of cigarettes, to decrease one’s appetite. The practice dates to early knowledge of nicotine as an appetite suppressant.
Tobacco smoking was associated with appetite suppression among Pre-Columbian indigenous Americans and Old World Europeans.[1] For decades, tobacco companies have employed these connections between slimness and smoking in their advertisements, mainly in brands and advertisements targeting women.
Other than bullets raining over new jersey,
The Air National Guard already had a go at it. I say let the Civil Air Patrol get a chance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strafing_of_the_Little_Egg_Harbor_Intermediate_School
The strafing of the Little Egg Harbor Intermediate School was an incident in Little Egg Harbor Township, New Jersey, United States, in 2004, when a military aircraft on a training mission unintentionally discharged 27 cannon rounds while attempting to operate an aircraft mounted laser.
On Thursday, November 4, 2004, at around 9pm, an F-16 Fighting Falcon jet from the 113th Wing of the District of Columbia Air National Guard, based at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on a training mission at the Warren Grove Bombing Range was climbing upward at 8,000 feet (2,400 m). The lead pilot was on a training ride in pursuit of an upgrade to instructor pilot. A recent software change in the F-16 allowed the externally mounted targeting pod to stabilize on a spot on the earth when the avionics were in Air to Ground Mode, Strafe Sub-Mode. The pilot intended to fire a laser at a strafe target located on the range. The laser and gun share the same trigger. The pilot pulled the trigger, firing not only the laser but also the internal M61 Vulcan cannon, discharging 27 rounds of 20 mm (0.79 in) ammunition which struck the ground, eight striking the school’s roof and the rest hitting the parking lot and the side of the building.
A good reason to try to avoid being deeply dependent on a product that a single company controls that’s hard to transition away from. Even if you’re happy with that company, someone else might manage to get control of them.
The council also said that in the past other decorations like Santa hats and wreaths have been added but that this was different.
“While we don’t condone the wreaths… and Santa hats, let’s stay away from adhesives, graffiti and all things that can damage the art” it said on it’s social post.
It sounds like what they don’t want is adhesive on the thing, which I’d say is probably a legit ask.
https://metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/sei_29455926-d11d.jpg
Lucky Strike cigarettes
Your Throat Protection – against irritation – against cough.
This also has entertaining videogame shooter potential. Low-altitude aerial gun combat sounds like unexplored territory.
So, we have been informing and will continue to inform the Armenian sponsors — conditionally speaking, the Soros people in Washington —
“Soros people”? Azerbaijan?
kagis
Hmmm.
https://eurasianet.org/there-is-a-specter-haunting-azerbaijan-the-specter-of-george-soros
There is a Specter Haunting Azerbaijan, the Specter of George Soros
Bradley Jardine Sep 11, 2017
In response to a recent string of corruption allegations and international criticism, Azerbaijan’s authorities have identified a scapegoat: billionaire philanthropist George Soros.
Last week, investigative reporting by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) revealed a secret $2.9 billion slush fund linked to Azerbaijan’s ruling family. The fund was reportedly used from 2012 to 2014 as a means of bribing European politicians for political leverage.
The investigation has sparked severe backlash from Azerbaijan’s authorities, and they are blaming a traditional enemy – an ill-defined “Armenian lobby” – along with a relatively new bugaboo, Soros.
In a remarkable statement from the press service of Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, Soros is alleged to have worked in collusion with Armenian activists to smear Baku’s government:
We know that it is George Soros and his henchmen – who have an international reputation of cheaters, tricksters, frauds and liars in relation to Azerbaijan and its leadership – that are behind the campaign. The Armenian lobby, which acts in concert with him, carries out a dirty campaign against the President of Azerbaijan and his family.
failed state
Not really specific to this story, but people massively overuse the term “failed state”. A failed state isn’t a state with some issue or a poor executive, authoritarian government, or the like. It’s the kind of situation you might see around, say, a civil war where the government no longer really operates and nobody’s in control any more. You likely have local warlords with limited local control of bits of territory. Something like Haiti might be a present-day example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Failed_state
A failed state is a state that has lost its ability to fulfill fundamental security and development functions, lacking effective control over its territory and borders. Common characteristics of a failed state include a government incapable of tax collection, law enforcement, security assurance, territorial control, political or civil office staffing, and infrastructure maintenance. When this happens, widespread corruption and criminality, the intervention of state and non-state actors, the appearance of refugees and the involuntary movement of populations, sharp economic decline, and military intervention from both within and outside the state are much more likely to occur.
!plumbing@lemmy.world and !plumbing@lemmy.dbzer0.com don’t currently have much activity, unfortunately.