while it is nevertheless relevant as a major publication by a western bank, this is such a stupid and ill-informed report. july 2025 is 2 months away and there is absolutely no way a peace treaty is signed by then. negotiations literally haven’t even started. anyone who believes otherwise should have a look at this article on the nuts and bolts of diplomacy in the current context.
further, this is entirely unfounded and does not reflect russian troop/materiel replenishment. the comment about 118 years is just accountant map brained bullshit
Putin’s losses are also far from sustainable. At its current rate of gain, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about…118 years
Russia will control all of Ukraine in about… 118 years
Do they believe their own bullshit? Because imagine only ever predicting shit with a straight line, where everything is linear, quantitive change is steady and predictable and qualities never evolve. There is no nonlinearity, there is no potential for collapse, chaos, or punctuated equilibrium. The small changes you see today will continue as they are for centuries.
I know it’s nerd talk to discuss dialectics, or complexity, but it’s mind boggling how undialectical these serious people are. Part of me thinks it just cope on their part to make their masters happy because how could one make that prediction without smelling your own bs and knowing its a completely meaningless number. But banks and think tanks do select for the smoothest of minds.
For all people like to compare it to WWI, they don’t ever seem to think that it’s probably going to end like it where one side eventually has its ability to maintain the front destroyed and then starts losing massive amounts of territory very quickly.
At the rate the western front was going it would have taken hundreds of years to get all of Germany, but that’s not how wars of attrition work.
Putin’s losses are also far from sustainable. At its current rate of gain, Russia will control all of Ukraine in about…118 years
We are living in an early Soviet cartoon where the largest capitalist institutions have to reject basic laws of the universe like quantity → quality because they are Bolshevist propaganda. Terrible.
I agree there is a lot of stupid in the report, but there doesn’t need to be a peace treaty signed for the war to end. It’s not unthinkable that the US could walk away within two months if they decide that there’s no path forward, or the AFU could start to visibly collapse. In either case, the war would be effectively over. It’s obviously going to take more time for the hostilities to end and diplomacy to happen, but effectively the war would be over at that point.
if you count scenarios where hostilities are ongoing as the war being over, the war is already over and has been since 2023. there’s no outcome from here on out where ukraine isn’t a failed state for at least the next generation, no matter what other territory changes hands or how many people die
I don’t think there was any outcome where Ukraine could win from the start of the war, but what I’m talking about is the narrative collapse in the west. Right now we’re still getting articles like this gem arguing that Ukraine is winning actually, and there is still popular belief in the west that the war can be won.
The only way this happens in this timeline is if there is an extremely rapid pro Russian coup of Ukraine. And even then it would have to be like this weekend
while it is nevertheless relevant as a major publication by a western bank, this is such a stupid and ill-informed report. july 2025 is 2 months away and there is absolutely no way a peace treaty is signed by then. negotiations literally haven’t even started. anyone who believes otherwise should have a look at this article on the nuts and bolts of diplomacy in the current context.
further, this is entirely unfounded and does not reflect russian troop/materiel replenishment. the comment about 118 years is just accountant map brained bullshit
unbelievably poor analysis
Do they believe their own bullshit? Because imagine only ever predicting shit with a straight line, where everything is linear, quantitive change is steady and predictable and qualities never evolve. There is no nonlinearity, there is no potential for collapse, chaos, or punctuated equilibrium. The small changes you see today will continue as they are for centuries.
I know it’s nerd talk to discuss dialectics, or complexity, but it’s mind boggling how undialectical these serious people are. Part of me thinks it just cope on their part to make their masters happy because how could one make that prediction without smelling your own bs and knowing its a completely meaningless number. But banks and think tanks do select for the smoothest of minds.
For all people like to compare it to WWI, they don’t ever seem to think that it’s probably going to end like it where one side eventually has its ability to maintain the front destroyed and then starts losing massive amounts of territory very quickly.
At the rate the western front was going it would have taken hundreds of years to get all of Germany, but that’s not how wars of attrition work.
We are living in an early Soviet cartoon where the largest capitalist institutions have to reject basic laws of the universe like quantity → quality because they are Bolshevist propaganda. Terrible.
I agree there is a lot of stupid in the report, but there doesn’t need to be a peace treaty signed for the war to end. It’s not unthinkable that the US could walk away within two months if they decide that there’s no path forward, or the AFU could start to visibly collapse. In either case, the war would be effectively over. It’s obviously going to take more time for the hostilities to end and diplomacy to happen, but effectively the war would be over at that point.
if you count scenarios where hostilities are ongoing as the war being over, the war is already over and has been since 2023. there’s no outcome from here on out where ukraine isn’t a failed state for at least the next generation, no matter what other territory changes hands or how many people die
I don’t think there was any outcome where Ukraine could win from the start of the war, but what I’m talking about is the narrative collapse in the west. Right now we’re still getting articles like this gem arguing that Ukraine is winning actually, and there is still popular belief in the west that the war can be won.
Because war is always linear, right?
Yeah this gives off the energy of a propaganda post to scare all of the capitalists and capitalist bootlickers about the conflict
The only way this happens in this timeline is if there is an extremely rapid pro Russian coup of Ukraine. And even then it would have to be like this weekend