The Kosmos 482 descent craft is the lander module from a 1972 failed Soviet Venera mission to Venus. The 500kg lander was designed to survive passage through the Venus atmosphere, it is possible that it could survive reentry through the Earth’s atmosphere intact.
Too early to predict that accurately. Our upper atmosphere expands and contracts depending on the activity of the sun, there can be large daily changes. An expanding atmosphere with slow the craft and it will de-obit quicker. A contracting atmosphere will allow the craft to stay in orbit a little longer. IIRC they won’t have an accurate time or a better idea of the impact site until about a day before reentry. I guess some folk are saying there is only a chance of making it to the surface as they don’t know if it is still intact.
At least one of the ‘experts’ that I’ve read firmly believes it will reach the surface as he analyzed its light curves a while back. I’m going with his prediction as that thing was built to survive tougher conditions than an Earth reentry. Odds are high that it will land in the ocean, but if it stays intact and hits land, then it’ll make a new hole in any golf coarse that happened to be in its cross hairs ;)
News media will likely start to report on it, as it gets closer to May 9th :)
Watch this space :)