Does anyone know what all this firing is going to do to the unemployment rate and economy? They are firing tens of thousands of people around the country. That’s going to be a lot of people looking for jobs, no longer paying taxes, and cause a cascade effect of losing homes/assets, lower spending, which will slow the economy even more. It’s just a swirling bowl of shit while Elon/Trump stand there pressing the flapper over and over hoping for a better outcome.
Does anyone know what all this firing is going to do to the unemployment rate and economy? They are firing tens of thousands of people around the country.
I’m going to go pull up the civilian labor force participation rate, which isn’t quite the same thing, but I’d think is probably more-relevant in that if you get enough shift in wages, you’ll have people move into or out of that. The unemployment rate only applies to people who are actively looking for work.
As of January 2025, there are 170,744,000 people in the labor force.
I have seen little by way on hard numbers for actual layoffs. But, okay, let’s say that a hundred thousand people are laid off. That’d be about 3% of the federal government. If we shift 100,000 people from participation to non-participation, the direct impact – and “direct” does matter, because there’s at least some multiplier effect as non-government employees who support those employees in their current role get laid off – would be about a 0.059 percentage point change in the size of the labor participation rate.
That wouldn’t represent a very dramatic change relative to the changes we’ve seen over that chart.
I think a more-impactful concern isn’t just “are people employed”? I mean, federal employment isn’t just make-work to have people employed. Rather, it’s “are the cuts we make ones where we are losing on the net?” Like, say we cut people working on Thing X. Well, now we don’t have Thing X anymore. Theoretically, if we’ve made wise hiring decisions – and maybe we haven’t – we shouldn’t be paying people working on Thing X more than Thing X is worth to us. But…maybe Thing X is really valuable, and laying people off loses us Thing X. That could be pretty costly.
Like, one thing that people just got laid off from was, as I recall, some early-warning radar system in Hawaii. Do we need an early-warning radar system in Hawaii? I don’t know. But if we do, that could be a pretty costly thing not to have in place, if what we’re trying to focus on is China.
I think that this is the item being installed/operated, as it’s a relatively-new early-warning radar going into Hawaii.
The AN/SPY-7(V)1 is the official designation of an LRDR-derivative used with the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System…Missile Defense Agency has also decided to use AN/SPY-7(V)1 for the Aegis Ashore to be installed in Hawaii.
I mean, has the military actually said that it considers this unnecessary? I’ve seen one article, in searching from this, from someone saying that they didn’t think that DOGE even understood that the people involved were working on missile defense, just cut them because they were FAA. I don’t know if that’s true or not, but I kind of doubt that the layoffs represent some kind of prioritized cost cutting coming from the military.
most of the people this guy knew who took the slow burn firing were already planning to retire this year. Those have no effect on unemployment, but are just a really disruptive and noisy alternative to an early retirement package, or simply feeezing hires and waiting
one guy was warned he wasn’t working out so in his best interest to slow fire.
lots of recruiters hanging around - consulting companies are staffing up on the expectation of a lot of new business
Does anyone know what all this firing is going to do to the unemployment rate and economy? They are firing tens of thousands of people around the country. That’s going to be a lot of people looking for jobs, no longer paying taxes, and cause a cascade effect of losing homes/assets, lower spending, which will slow the economy even more. It’s just a swirling bowl of shit while Elon/Trump stand there pressing the flapper over and over hoping for a better outcome.
I already know someone in the hospitality industry who said conferences and whatnot are cancelling.
There are going to be wide ranging ripple effects from this stupidity.
Okay, that one got me good. “Better outcome.” Hoooo boy.
I’m going to go pull up the civilian labor force participation rate, which isn’t quite the same thing, but I’d think is probably more-relevant in that if you get enough shift in wages, you’ll have people move into or out of that. The unemployment rate only applies to people who are actively looking for work.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
As of January 2025, there are 170,744,000 people in the labor force.
I have seen little by way on hard numbers for actual layoffs. But, okay, let’s say that a hundred thousand people are laid off. That’d be about 3% of the federal government. If we shift 100,000 people from participation to non-participation, the direct impact – and “direct” does matter, because there’s at least some multiplier effect as non-government employees who support those employees in their current role get laid off – would be about a 0.059 percentage point change in the size of the labor participation rate.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm
That wouldn’t represent a very dramatic change relative to the changes we’ve seen over that chart.
I think a more-impactful concern isn’t just “are people employed”? I mean, federal employment isn’t just make-work to have people employed. Rather, it’s “are the cuts we make ones where we are losing on the net?” Like, say we cut people working on Thing X. Well, now we don’t have Thing X anymore. Theoretically, if we’ve made wise hiring decisions – and maybe we haven’t – we shouldn’t be paying people working on Thing X more than Thing X is worth to us. But…maybe Thing X is really valuable, and laying people off loses us Thing X. That could be pretty costly.
Like, one thing that people just got laid off from was, as I recall, some early-warning radar system in Hawaii. Do we need an early-warning radar system in Hawaii? I don’t know. But if we do, that could be a pretty costly thing not to have in place, if what we’re trying to focus on is China.
I think that this is the item being installed/operated, as it’s a relatively-new early-warning radar going into Hawaii.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Range_Discrimination_Radar
I mean, has the military actually said that it considers this unnecessary? I’ve seen one article, in searching from this, from someone saying that they didn’t think that DOGE even understood that the people involved were working on missile defense, just cut them because they were FAA. I don’t know if that’s true or not, but I kind of doubt that the layoffs represent some kind of prioritized cost cutting coming from the military.
Maybe. From a conversation last night: