Russia has a population of 146,028,325, of which this would be 6.8%. These are tremendously-disproportionate numbers; the 10 million here would be about a quarter Ukraine’s prewar population. My expectation—without trying to do a deeper analysis looking at what military hardware might wind up in the hands of the seceding oblasts—is that absent other changes in Russia, or political unwillingness to fight against seceding oblasts, or outside direct involvement, there would be a civil war and the resources of the other 93% would most-likely defeat them and re-extend control over them.
That might have a risk of nuclear civil war, depending upon how the military acts and what control of the arsenal looks like. The prospect of nuclear war amongst ex-member states of the Soviet Union was a principal concern of the US about the time that the Soviet Union broke up.
EDIT: Updated numbers to reflect the fact that Saint Petersburg isn’t part of Leningrad Oblast.
Russia has a population of 146,028,325, of which this would be 6.8%. These are tremendously-disproportionate numbers; the 10 million here would be about a quarter Ukraine’s prewar population. My expectation—without trying to do a deeper analysis looking at what military hardware might wind up in the hands of the seceding oblasts—is that absent other changes in Russia, or political unwillingness to fight against seceding oblasts, or outside direct involvement, there would be a civil war and the resources of the other 93% would most-likely defeat them and re-extend control over them.
That might have a risk of nuclear civil war, depending upon how the military acts and what control of the arsenal looks like. The prospect of nuclear war amongst ex-member states of the Soviet Union was a principal concern of the US about the time that the Soviet Union broke up.
EDIT: Updated numbers to reflect the fact that Saint Petersburg isn’t part of Leningrad Oblast.