This was pretty much what Michael Kofman predicted was going to happen months ago. As long as Russia feels that they can prevail militarily and is making maximalist demands based on that, and Ukraine is unwilling to accept those terms, there’s not really much room for mutually-acceptable terms.
Even if they got something on paper, that’s not likely to translate to a durable peace.
The top party there is China (who I don’t think that we’re in a position to compel to cut off from Russia).
There’s Belarus, which I doubt is going to be compelled to cut off trade from Russia given the state of affairs.
The other top countries are all EU members. I mean, we could try and put pressure on them, but theoretically they should be doing this themselves.
Like, I can understand criticism as to Trump’s interactions with Zelenskyy, but I don’t think that there’s some magic, easy-to-use lever to compel Russia that the White House has in reserve. Maybe weapon supplies to Ukraine are the most-influential left.
I agree that economic sanctions are nearly maxed out, but as you mention, they could provide more military aid. Instead, that was already delayed last year by Republicans, and recently even intelligence support was suspended, as Russia increased the bombing of civilians. Adding to this, most public quotes were about blaming Ukraine and trying to appease Putin, which significantly influenced how “brave” Russia acted.
The US is free to do with their resources as they please, but if they actually wanted to stop this war, they had the options to move towards to that. Instead the war went on for months without any positive results. The mineral deal can be a good step, but it seems to be the last one, so not sure it will be enough alone.
This was pretty much what Michael Kofman predicted was going to happen months ago. As long as Russia feels that they can prevail militarily and is making maximalist demands based on that, and Ukraine is unwilling to accept those terms, there’s not really much room for mutually-acceptable terms.
Even if they got something on paper, that’s not likely to translate to a durable peace.
If the US leadership weren’t idiots, they could have put pressure on Russia to get at least a ceasefire. Instead, they focused on bullying Ukraine.
I don’t know how much more pressure can be applied absent direct conflict between the US and Russia, which I don’t believe the US will do.
Almost all US-Russia trade is gone, so not much to take away in economic terms.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4621.html
In 2021, the US imported $29.6 billion from Russia and exported $6.4 billion.
In 2024, the US imported $3 billion (90% gone) and exported $0.5 billion to Russia (92% gone).
It might be possible to pressure other countries not to trade with Russia via use of secondary sanctions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Russia
The top party there is China (who I don’t think that we’re in a position to compel to cut off from Russia).
There’s Belarus, which I doubt is going to be compelled to cut off trade from Russia given the state of affairs.
The other top countries are all EU members. I mean, we could try and put pressure on them, but theoretically they should be doing this themselves.
Like, I can understand criticism as to Trump’s interactions with Zelenskyy, but I don’t think that there’s some magic, easy-to-use lever to compel Russia that the White House has in reserve. Maybe weapon supplies to Ukraine are the most-influential left.
I agree that economic sanctions are nearly maxed out, but as you mention, they could provide more military aid. Instead, that was already delayed last year by Republicans, and recently even intelligence support was suspended, as Russia increased the bombing of civilians. Adding to this, most public quotes were about blaming Ukraine and trying to appease Putin, which significantly influenced how “brave” Russia acted.
The US is free to do with their resources as they please, but if they actually wanted to stop this war, they had the options to move towards to that. Instead the war went on for months without any positive results. The mineral deal can be a good step, but it seems to be the last one, so not sure it will be enough alone.