Summary

Plans for a potential Trump third term are already being discussed, despite constitutional limitations.

Trump’s former strategist Steve Bannon has suggested they’re “working on it,” while Trump himself has made several hints about running again after 2028.

Some Republicans, like Congressman Andy Ogles, have proposed amending the 22nd Amendment to allow three terms.

Constitutional law professor Michele Goodwin warns that Trump’s administration has already shown “a display of lawlessness” with controversial executive orders and policies, while critics note Democratic opposition has been largely absent, allowing these discussions to gain traction.

  • Rivalarrival
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    3 days ago

    Without a constitutional amendment, it’s not going to happen. Even the secret service will intervene, following the orders of the legitimate president over Trump.

    Even if there is no election, the 25th amendment continues to operate, and there is still a valid line of succession. Trump’s and Vance’s terms end in January, 2029. Trump is out.

    Without an election, all House seats would be vacant, so there would be no Speaker. The line then goes to the President pro tempore of the Senate. Since only 1/3 of Senate terms expire in any election year, there is still a functioning Senate. It can select a “President pro tempore of the Senate”, who is 4th in line for the Presidency.

    If there is an Electoral College, its votes cannot be certified by a non-existent House of Representatives, which means a president cannot be selected. However, the Senate certifies the EC votes for the Vice President, and/or selects the Vice President if the votes cannot be certified for some reason.

    With either the senate-selected Vice President, or the senate-selected President pro tempore of the Senate, there will be a non-Trump president in the White House in January, 2029.

    • Pennomi@lemmy.world
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      3 days ago

      That’s assuming he doesn’t install yes-men to all important positions in the government.

      Good thing we haven’t seen any signs of THAT happening yet. /s

      • Rivalarrival
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        3 days ago

        At that point, the Constitution is no longer valid, and we’ve entered into a second civil war between everyone who understands the phrase “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice,” and everyone who does not.

    • Nightwingdragon@lemmy.world
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      3 days ago

      Without a constitutional amendment, it’s not going to happen.

      Do you think the Constitution is a magical, sentient, self-enforcing entity? If the people entrusted with enforcing the Constitution are unable or unwilling to do so, the Constitution is just a really old piece of paper.

      Even the secret service will intervene, following the orders of the legitimate president over Trump.

      The same could be said for the media, our politicians, our universities, etc. Every institution that people said would hold the line against this kind of autocratic takeover has opted to roll over and play dead instead.

      Even if there is no election, the 25th amendment continues to operate, and there is still a valid line of succession. Trump’s and Vance’s terms end in January, 2029. Trump is out.

      See above. If your statement were true, then we wouldn’t even have a President Trump because the 14th amendment would also have continued to operate and disqualify him from even running. But instead they just handwaved the 14th amendment away as unenforceable (read: Inconvenient). Someone has to actually invoke the 25th amendment, and Trump has purged anyone with the authority to do so.

      Plus, the 25th amendment is intended for Presidents who are functionally unable to perform their duties. Coma patients. Severe stroke victims. Medical conditions. Stuff like that. And in case you don’t know, even if someone does try to invoke the 25th, all Trump has to do is basically show up and say “I am able to perform my duties” under his own power, and the invocation is automatically nullified.

      Trump is a functional moron, and is terrible at the job, but he meets the minimum standards to remain in power under the 25th amendment. It’s not supposed to be an out against Presidents who do the job badly, it’s supposed to be a remedy for those who are physically unable to do the job at all. Trump does not meet that criteria.

      Without an election, all House seats would be vacant, so there would be no Speaker. The line then goes to the President pro tempore of the Senate. Since only 1/3 of Senate terms expire in any election year, there is still a functioning Senate. It can select a “President pro tempore of the Senate”, who is 4th in line for the Presidency.

      If there is an Electoral College, its votes cannot be certified by a non-existent House of Representatives, which means a president cannot be selected. However, the Senate certifies the EC votes for the Vice President, and/or selects the Vice President if the votes cannot be certified for some reason.

      With either the senate-selected Vice President, or the senate-selected President pro tempore of the Senate, there will be a non-Trump president in the White House in January, 2029.

      If we’re at a point where Trump suspends elections, none of this would apply any longer. Who remains in power would be dictated by who’s currently in power. Again, the Constitution is not a magical self-enforcing document. If the people in power are unwilling to enforce it, it becomes a really old piece of paper.

      • Rivalarrival
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        3 days ago

        Do you think the Constitution is a magical, sentient, self-enforcing entity? If the people entrusted with enforcing the Constitution are unable or unwilling to do so, the Constitution is just a really old piece of paper.

        The “people entrusted with enforcing the Constitution” are “We The People”, and We The People are, indeed, following it. The Constitution tells us that Trump is currently president; we are allowing it.

        Every institution that people said would hold the line against this kind of autocratic takeover has opted to roll over and play dead instead. follow the Constitution.

        FTFY. We are all currently allowing Trump to be president because the Constitution says he is. That stops being true on 20 January, 2029.

    • sanpedropeddler@sh.itjust.works
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      3 days ago

      I couldn’t help but notice a lot of those arguments are based on procedures described in the constitution, a document which is strangely being ignored a lot lately.

      Personally I doubt he will get a third term, but its certainly possible, and he will almost certainly try.

      • Rivalarrival
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        3 days ago

        It’s not being ignored, at least not by the people who actually matter: We The People.

        The constitution tells us that he’s currently the president. We are following the constitution.

        When the constitution tells us someone else is president, we’ll follow that, too.

        • Dragomus@lemmy.world
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          The constitution declared him ineligible to hold the position because he is a proven insurrectionist … But here we are… the courts declared the constitution wrong and he was to be put on the ballot.

          Trump should have been behind bars but the judiciary branch did not want to make haste nor prosecute an up and coming president … so here we are…

          He put unelected people in places that they have absolutely no knowledge of, nor had they any security clearance, but no one dares to challenge them or Trump about it.

          He’s stealing public funds here and there, under the guise of “savings from fraud” but no one knows where the money will be siphoned off to… and no one dares try to stop it.

          He is disappearing people for no reasons other than not liking someone’s opinion, and denies them any form of legal recourse. They just dissappear.

          He’s installed unmonitored internet in the White House through Starlink, no one tries to stop it or enquire what the need for that is.

          He is trying to start wars over territory that is not his, think about that, a US-president personally being a warmonger, for no reasons other than his own.

          He unabashedly promised no more need to vote after he was elected, already has multiple people promoting a 3rd term. And we’re now supposed to think this will be the reason someone will rise up to stop him? Or a senator here and there will dare to claim power from under him just because Trump’s term ended?

          I’m waiting for the moment Trump actually shoots someone, in the white house or his palace in Florida, and it’s all laughed off with some lame reason.

          He was in the elections as a presidential candidate, but everyone knew he’d be elected as a dictator, and as such he nor his cronies will not simply go away at the end of his term.

          He can’t even just go away, he’d have various lawsuits hanging above his head, so he’ll keep his power for as long as he can.

        • FooBarrington@lemmy.world
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          3 days ago

          The constitution says much more than just who is president, and not everything it says is being followed.

          But you know that.

          • Rivalarrival
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            3 days ago

            Of course I know that. I can’t control whether Trump follows the constitution. I can’t control whether you follow the constitution. I can only control my own actions. And as of 20 January 2029, Trump is no longer president.

            If you’re going to claim otherwise, you do so at your own peril.

    • xyzzy@lemm.ee
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      3 days ago

      States elect the president; they put him on the ballot. If he tries to do something unconstitutional, he won’t be on the ballot in many states. And the Democrats may control the House. The Senate (or all of Congress) can try to discount returns from those states, but at that point we’re looking at a Supreme Court case, and everyone involved will know that if that’s ruled poorly, there’s a good chance it’ll result in the dissolution of the republic, and war.

      In other words, it’s very unlikely. But a lot can happen in four years.

      Don’t be a soft target. Buy a gun. Learn how to use it.

      • Rivalarrival
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        3 days ago

        If he tries to do something unconstitutional, he won’t be on the ballot in many states

        Of course. I was considering a worst-case scenario in which elections were somehow suspended in 2028, so that the states could not elect a different president.

    • ChonkyOwlbear@lemmy.world
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      3 days ago

      I’m assuming he will just run as VP with Vance or one of his sons as President, but still functionally serve the same role.

      • Rivalarrival
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        3 days ago

        Can’t. You have to be qualified to run for president in order to run as VP. He isn’t eligible to run again.

        You can serve out less than two years of another president’s term, and still be eligible to be elected to two terms of your own. For example, Harris could have replaced Biden two years into his term, in which case she probably would have won in 2024, and remained eligible to run in 2028. You can be president up to (but not including) 10 years.

        • ricecake@sh.itjust.works
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          The wording is specifically that you need to be qualified to hold the office of the president, not to run for the office.

          But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

          With qualifications to hold the office being:

          No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

          So the phrasing of the 22nd created an issue:

          No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once

          Elsewhere it talks about eligibility to hold office, but the 22nd only refers to election.

          https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution-conan/amendment-22/overview-of-twenty-second-amendment-presidential-term-limits

          There’s also a similar issue with the speaker of the house, where eligibility isn’t as clearly defined as one might expect.

          While the intent of the law was clearly to codify the previous pattern of capping it at two terms (and being spiteful to FDR) it’s phrased with enough ambiguity that it’s clear how they’ll argue it.