Will the increased snow cover at lower latitudes reduce warming? (I’m guessing probably yes, due to increased albedo. But, snow is also an insulator, and might be holding ground heat. I don’t know which effect will be greater.)
If it does reduce warming, will the amount be significant relative to anthropogenic climate change? (I’m guessing probably not.)
And just out of curiosity, did the Southern Hemisphere experience similar polar disturbances last winter, or in the past few years?
No. Well at least the first 2 weeks of the year are the warmest on record. A polar vortex just moves warmth elsewhere. It’s fair that a few days of snow cover is increased albedo for a few days, but it’s a drop in the bucket. A blanket of snow also keeps the ground warm.
The problem here is that the snow will melt at some point. The reason this is happening is because the sea ice that existed year-round until now is nearly gone each summer. The lack of consistent ice covering means that there is a greater amount of energy being absorbed by the ocean, perhaps not year-round, but that it’s happening so much more in the summer is sufficient to utterly outweigh any amount of temporary snowfall anywhere else on the globe.
I mean, you could think of it like rain. Imagine that you have a bucket, and it’s out in a rainstorm. There’s a plant in the bucket with some soil, and a tiny little pinhole in the bottom that let’s out a couple of drips at any given time. Now, let’s say you want to make sure that the plant gets just the right amount of water, so that it still gets the right amount of rain, but it doesn’t flood and overpower the leak out of the bottom. What’s the simplest solution? Figure out how quickly the rain is coming down, and then cover part of the bucket so you only get the right amount of rain, right? Now imagine that some hooligan comes by and decides to muck with your bucket, because for the slightest moment, it will bring their sad, shriveled heart some measure of joy to make your life worse. They decide to move the cover. Maybe they take it off entirely, and that would guarantee the plant would die, but they’re a sick, evil little gobshite, so they only move it off when you’re out for the day, and then they put it back when you get home. When you go into your house, they take off the cover again, letting in the full torrent of rain. You look at the bucket, and wonder why the plant is getting flooded. Why isn’t the cover working anymore? Because it’s only there to help some of the time, and the damage that’s done while it’s missing is piling up faster than the drain can sink it away
The plant is the entire world ecosystem, you are the careful equilibrium that has been in place since the Oligocene, the rain is sunlight, the cover is arctic ice, the little gobshite is the corporations and individuals that have decided that their personal aggrandizement is the only thing that matters.
You want real trouble? Now imagine that when the level of water reaches high enough in the bucket, the cover doesn’t even fit anymore. That’s what happens when the permafrost and methane hydrates release their payloads in the coming years. That way lies the Permian mass extinction.
Will the increased snow cover at lower latitudes reduce warming? (I’m guessing probably yes, due to increased albedo. But, snow is also an insulator, and might be holding ground heat. I don’t know which effect will be greater.)
If it does reduce warming, will the amount be significant relative to anthropogenic climate change? (I’m guessing probably not.)
And just out of curiosity, did the Southern Hemisphere experience similar polar disturbances last winter, or in the past few years?
No. Well at least the first 2 weeks of the year are the warmest on record. A polar vortex just moves warmth elsewhere. It’s fair that a few days of snow cover is increased albedo for a few days, but it’s a drop in the bucket. A blanket of snow also keeps the ground warm.
The problem here is that the snow will melt at some point. The reason this is happening is because the sea ice that existed year-round until now is nearly gone each summer. The lack of consistent ice covering means that there is a greater amount of energy being absorbed by the ocean, perhaps not year-round, but that it’s happening so much more in the summer is sufficient to utterly outweigh any amount of temporary snowfall anywhere else on the globe.
How do I quantify this to my hypothetical parents who reject climate change, and to my hypothetical siblings who don’t know one way or another?
I mean, you could think of it like rain. Imagine that you have a bucket, and it’s out in a rainstorm. There’s a plant in the bucket with some soil, and a tiny little pinhole in the bottom that let’s out a couple of drips at any given time. Now, let’s say you want to make sure that the plant gets just the right amount of water, so that it still gets the right amount of rain, but it doesn’t flood and overpower the leak out of the bottom. What’s the simplest solution? Figure out how quickly the rain is coming down, and then cover part of the bucket so you only get the right amount of rain, right? Now imagine that some hooligan comes by and decides to muck with your bucket, because for the slightest moment, it will bring their sad, shriveled heart some measure of joy to make your life worse. They decide to move the cover. Maybe they take it off entirely, and that would guarantee the plant would die, but they’re a sick, evil little gobshite, so they only move it off when you’re out for the day, and then they put it back when you get home. When you go into your house, they take off the cover again, letting in the full torrent of rain. You look at the bucket, and wonder why the plant is getting flooded. Why isn’t the cover working anymore? Because it’s only there to help some of the time, and the damage that’s done while it’s missing is piling up faster than the drain can sink it away
The plant is the entire world ecosystem, you are the careful equilibrium that has been in place since the Oligocene, the rain is sunlight, the cover is arctic ice, the little gobshite is the corporations and individuals that have decided that their personal aggrandizement is the only thing that matters.
You want real trouble? Now imagine that when the level of water reaches high enough in the bucket, the cover doesn’t even fit anymore. That’s what happens when the permafrost and methane hydrates release their payloads in the coming years. That way lies the Permian mass extinction.