McDonaldâs has some beef with todayâs largest meat packers.
The fast food giant is suing the U.S. meat industryâs âBig Fourâ â Tyson, JBS, Cargill and National Beef Packing Company â and their subsidiaries, alleging a price fixing scheme for beef specifically. In a federal complaint, filed Friday in New York, McDonaldâs accused the companies of anticompetitive measures such as collectively limiting supply to boost prices and charge âillegally inflatedâ amounts.
This collusion caused the beef market to become âa monopoly in which direct purchasers were forced to buy at prices dictated by (the meat packers),â McDonaldâs suit reads â later noting that the injury it has sustained as one of those buyers is what âantitrust laws were designed to prevent.â
McDonaldâs alleges that the meat packersâ conspiracy dates back nearly a decade, at least as early as January 2015, and continues today. Its suit argues these companiesâ actions violate the Sherman Act, a federal antitrust law.
I donât know anything about the specifics here, but hereâs a 5 year graph of futures for live cattle versus beef:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/live-cattle
If thereâs collusion to engage in price-fixing by meat packers, Iâd expect to see beef prices rising without a corresponding increase in cattle prices.
Beef prices did indeed recently start rising rapidly without a corresponding increase in live cattle prices.
But on the other hand, beef prices are also a lot lower relative to live cattle prices than they were during roughly COVID-19.
TBF things look pretty different if you go back to 2015 like McDonaldâs is alleging.
EDIT: To me, it really looks like COVID was the big factor impacting price though.
COVID wasnât the only factor. What people donât remember because of all the other crazy shit that happened was that we had a 3 year drought.
Prices still havenât stabilized because itâs expensive to buy cattle right now. Prices will likely be in the shitter for another 1.5-2 years, and Iâm not sure theyâll ever really come down in a way people notice.
Cattle retention has not even begun yet, youâre absolutely correct. There will be 2+ more years of higher beef prices, weâre still slaughtering more than are being born therefore cattle prices will continue to rise on a macro level.
I actually didnât realize that. I was thinking we were coming to an end because my buddyâs ranch seems to have mostly recovered and heâs got more cattle now than he had a few years ago. But I guess I should look at the wider market instead of a single place if Iâm going to comment about things.
Oh, thatâs a good point â missed that in the article. They did say that it started in 2015.