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Cake day: December 10th, 2024

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  • carries the implication that the world would be happier were you to just kill off the huge segment of the population who end up on the negative side.

    Not necessarily. Someone dying isn’t the same as someone not existing at all.* It does imply that the world would be better off if it stopped existing, and under some assumptions implies it’d be moral to, say, instantly end all of humanity. I’m not sure that these conclusions are necessarily “contrary to our instincts”.

    *one reason why this has to be true, is that if we didn’t distinguish between those, then if an average life had positive value, it’d be immoral not to have as many children as possible, until the marginal value of an extra life fell to zero once again (kind of like how Malthus thought societies worked, except as a supposedly moral thing to do). That conclusion is something I do consider very contrary to my instincts.

    I do tend towards a variant of utilitarianism myself as it has a useful ability to weigh options that are both bad or both good, but for the reason above I tend to define “zero” as a complete lack of happiness/maximum of suffering, and being unhappy as having low happiness rather than negative (making a negative value impossible), though that carries it’s own implications that I know not everyone would agree with.

    I too am an utilitarianist, sure. I’m not sure I can possibly buy “maximum suffering and no happiness” being the zero point. I very strongly feel that there are plenty of lives that would be way worse than dying (and than never having existed, too). It’s a coherent position I think, just a very alien one to me.






  • I feel like the tone of “There is NO option to opt out of this unit, it is required for all students to complete” along with “As as science class we will only focus on the scientific theory and evidence.” is suggesting that their religious beliefs are irrelevant when it comes to science, which is far from an apology.

    Imagine if you saw an ice-cream stand with a sign saying “The price is 5$/cone. There is NO option to eat icecream without paying. We are aware that there are many cultural and political beliefs on economics. As a capitalist stall, we ONLY provide icecream in exchange for money. We are not trying to change your beliefs, but introducing what our standpoint is.”. If you saw that sign, I imagine you wouldn’t think “ah, what a totally normal shop”, you’d think “oh boy, Something Happened Here”.

    This email is proactively defensive in the same way. In a saner world, this email would be way shorter or wouldn’t exist at all, because you wouldn’t need to specify that a particular unit is non-optional, etc. Your screenshot makes me think of USA as more weirdly religious, not less.



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    3 hours ago

    I don’t think the “scientists” circle is there in reality.

    A world in which politicians actually needed to justify their actions by scientific research would be way better than this one. Yes, I know this is unreliable and biasable in a million ways, it’d still be better - it’s harder to make stuff up via a few intermediaries than to just make stuff up directly. Modern politicians are just linked directly to the twitter circle.


  • The simpler answer is that stock markets are way older than prediction markets and yet it’s not often that you hear about people blowing up factories or murdering people for the sole purpose of manipulating a stock. Similarly, few people would in fact go and help a wildfire spread in order to make money on a YES prediction.