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Joined 1 month ago
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Cake day: February 8th, 2025

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  • So the goal of tariffs is to cause an increase in the value of non-US currencies, which will balance out the trade deficit.

    I suspect it will split the world into trading blocs.

    The classic way to devalue a currency is to print money (increase money supply). But what Trump seems to be doing is reducing government expenditure, which will have a deflationary effect. Tariffs might cause more demand for US products in the US??? which might offset deflation?

    I don’t really understand how central bankers in non-US countries use $USD. I suppose they buy T-bills and hold them. ??? Apparently this is the underlying problem keeping the $USD high???























  • We are entering a major transition period, with many technological changes happening to disrupt the existing economy. One of the most important is the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

    For hundreds of years, the energy economy has been a system where certain countries and companies controlled the locations on earth where fossil fuels are located, and had the technology to process the fuels. Fossil fuels by their nature require the user to buy “feedstock” as they go. The countries and companies that control fossil fuel production profit from this system and are some of the wealthiest groups in the world.

    Renewable energy systems, such as solar, wind and batteries, require an upfront payment for the equipment. The cost of equipment for renewable energy is dropping every year. They can be located almost everywhere. There is no ongoing feedstock payment. Renewables break the fossil fuel industry model, and some of the wealthiest people in the world are scrambling to control governments to somehow retain their income flow. Currently their strategy is to delay implementation of renewables, but eventually they will try to create monopolies where they control the source of power and charge the customer about the same as they are paying now, with the utilities benefitting from the low cost of renewable power.

    This is only one of the transitions happening at this time. There are many major disruptions coming from implementing AI in the economy, from electric vehicles and self-driving vehicles. There are probably many more transitions that no one is predicting or even imagining at this time. You can expect things to be crazy for a decade or more as these technologies change the way our economy, infrastructure and society is shaped.