Fundamentally there is only so much oil in the ground. That’s all anyone is driving at, and everyone seems to be ignoring that. Plus it’s all shale oil now which is much more expensive to extract. The EROEI is going down as a result and all that oil is being wasted on routine economic activity. Other countries, where the rest of the shale oil will be, are getting much stronger and more able to defend themselves. Why is the concern with predictions? The main point is the working implication of introntrovertible material circumstances on the picture of the future. The economy itself must change. Being concerned with precise predictions even ignores the implication of ‘the bumpy plateau’ which is what I think we’re in now, bumpy not because of that one metric of global world oil production, but because of all of the factors that must distort around it in order to produce it and thereby distort and jeapordize the economy.
Oh no, I think you misunderstood me. I’m not arguing against alternative energy. I’m just highlighting some problems with solar tech and alternative energy systems that are relavant to the overall discussion of the very necessary transition away from fossil fuels. That’s good for First Solar. I’m not one to leave things to the economy to magically handle. I’m hoping there are people on here with some kind of connection somewhere, directly or indirectly, I can serve as a central repository of information to. I run a small nonprofit think tank focused on solving the polycrisis.