The only way the current strategy of both sides changes is if a major factor changes, otherwise this cold standoff is the most stable place for both sides on the matter.
It could be that an election in Taiwan is won by a very pro-China party - a similar thing led to rapid changes in Hong Kong. Or an American leader changes tactics dramatically because theres no longer an incentive to support Taiwan.
Taiwan needs to be careful to guard against either situation happening.
Differing from many superpowers that came before the US, the US has a reputation of following through on what it says it will do long term, and the vast geopolitical diplomatic reach of the Americans means that for now, China would experience too high an economic cost to try and change this balance unilaterally.
Especially when you consider that Biden and the powerful forces who actually get to decide how “the USA” responds to this are not for humanitarian reasons. “The USA” just wants nuclear launch sites as close as possible to China.
Are just following me around? Hey while you’re here, are the people of Xinjiang Chinese or not? I just want to know if I should refer to them as an oppressed population or an occupied country?
It could be that an election in Taiwan is won by a very pro-China party
For some reason, I don’t see this ever happening. Even if it does happen, I can easily see Western propaganda painting it as a sham-election or something.
They’re just that brazen with their bullshit to protect their interests.
While no party in Taiwan is openly in favor of reunification, there are major parties like the KMT and the TPP that are in favor of building a closer relationship with mainland China. Combined they are currently polling higher than the DPP which is considered to be the “pro independence” party.
So while I would agree that peaceful reunification is not possible in the near term, i think changes in the geopolitical dynamics between the US and China could make it more likely.
The only way the current strategy of both sides changes is if a major factor changes, otherwise this cold standoff is the most stable place for both sides on the matter.
It could be that an election in Taiwan is won by a very pro-China party - a similar thing led to rapid changes in Hong Kong. Or an American leader changes tactics dramatically because theres no longer an incentive to support Taiwan.
Taiwan needs to be careful to guard against either situation happening.
Differing from many superpowers that came before the US, the US has a reputation of following through on what it says it will do long term, and the vast geopolitical diplomatic reach of the Americans means that for now, China would experience too high an economic cost to try and change this balance unilaterally.
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Especially when you consider that Biden and the powerful forces who actually get to decide how “the USA” responds to this are not for humanitarian reasons. “The USA” just wants nuclear launch sites as close as possible to China.
Most of China’a infrastructure is on the coast. We can achieve that with a couple SSBNs lurking thousands of kilometers off the coast.
Bonus points if one surfaces where it can be photographed, but in international water, every so often. Just as a reminder.
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Are just following me around? Hey while you’re here, are the people of Xinjiang Chinese or not? I just want to know if I should refer to them as an oppressed population or an occupied country?
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Oh no, oh gosh. I’m sorry to be the one to tell you this but I was told that if I criticized the Chinese government I have to be a Sinophobe.
It’s okay, we have groups. And cookies.
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For some reason, I don’t see this ever happening. Even if it does happen, I can easily see Western propaganda painting it as a sham-election or something.
They’re just that brazen with their bullshit to protect their interests.
While no party in Taiwan is openly in favor of reunification, there are major parties like the KMT and the TPP that are in favor of building a closer relationship with mainland China. Combined they are currently polling higher than the DPP which is considered to be the “pro independence” party.
So while I would agree that peaceful reunification is not possible in the near term, i think changes in the geopolitical dynamics between the US and China could make it more likely.