I think 90% chance of apple going for the EU-Specific model just like they did for Digital markets act, 10 chance of screws, 0% chance of actually popping the back cover off with bare hands.
For Samsung, 50% chance EU-Specific models 40% chance screws, 10% chance back cover tool-less removal. (Edit: typo)
As for other smaller manufacturers, probably just 50%/50% either screws or tool-less back cover removal.
The waterproof IP rating is a misdirect. We had waterproof phones with replaceable batteries, they just weren’t required for most people. Batteries fail at a predictable rate, and decreasing or dead batteries are the primary reason people upgrade their phones.
Phone manufacturers wanted to seal their devices to make people buy a new phone when the battery dies. They started making a big deal about IP ratings, because it was a byproduct of gluing everything shut. But how often do you actually get your phone wet? Everyone has one story about dropping a phone in the toilet, or falling in a pool, but those instances are rare. not every phone will get wet or dusty, but every phone battery will die eventually.