Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.
Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.
Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).
Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.
I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran’s leadership must - if they haven’t already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Decided to make this a completely separate comment.
To classify Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, there’s this graphic and document I found that might help everyone understand it better. I’m really bad at graphic design, so there’s no way I could make my own graphics. It uses five categories, explained here:
Link to the 27 page PDF document, recommend reading
As for the Iranian ballistic missile arsenal with the range to hit Israel, I’ve included not to scale graphics from the document of the possible trajectories that can be used with the range to hit Israel:
Category 1:
Light category 2 (only for accuracy improvement, not non ballistic maneuvers or multiple re entry vehicles):
Light category 3 (only for accuracy improvement, not non ballistic maneuvers):
Category 3:
Category 4:
Category 5, “true hypersonic” weapons:
If you want a real world video example of how category 3 and 4 MaRV equipped ballistic missiles compare to category 1 in flight, I managed to find one video from Iran’s Operation True Promise II attack on Israel during October last year. Category 3 and 4 MaRVs are seen performing pull up maneuvers, level flight/glide phases, and final drives to the target from 0:00 to 1:03. Then after 1:03, category 1 purely ballistic trajectory missiles appear at a much higher altitude. I’ve posted it many times before, but it’s worth a watch.
Twitter link for video
Xcancel link
Thank you for this, very informative. The video from October is insane to watch.
It’s an incredible video of MaRV technology in action and how it works, with a direct comparison to re entry vehicles on a purely ballistic trajectory. You can even see the difference in interception rate between the two.
What’s really scary is that category 3 MaRV technology was invented in the 1970s and first deployed in the 1980s, on Pershing-II MaRV capable ballistic missiles, by the United states. To deliver nuclear weapons more effectively in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union…
Are there any AD systems (currently is use) that can intercept those higher category missiles with any rate of success?
Yes, the ones in Israel right now can intercept some, there have been significant changes to their defence shield since Yemen started firing category 4 MaRV capable ballistic missiles at Israel last year, and after Operation True Promise II. While category 3 and 4 MaRVs are much more difficult to intercept than purely ballistic systems, it’s still possible. If they’re fired in high numbers though, you’ll see a lot of hits, like in the video.
The key is to try hit them before they start maneuvering in the midcourse if they’re category 3, and to close gaps in the terminal defence stage with systems with overlapping engagement envelopes, and at high and low altitudes for when they maneuver.
For midcourse exoatmospheric interception, systems such as the US Navy’s SM-3 Block IB interceptor uses a 10 solid rocket motor variable throttle altitude control system, to counter category 2 and 4 systems that can maneuver outside of the atmosphere. The third stage rocket motor from this system landed in Iran. Arrow 3 is also designed to intercept ballistic missiles in the midcourse outside of the atmosphere, though it doesn’t have as advanced an altitude control system, to cut costs most likely, Arrow 3 is significantly cheaper than SM-3.
For the changes main changes to the terminal defense net in Israel, the addition of 1-2 THAAD batteries, and putting David’s Sling systems at important targets throughout Israel, are the changes made to compliment Arrow 2.
Ahh makes sense, gotta read up on missile & air defense tech more.
Thank you for the comprehensive reply!