Up front, it is important to mention that 11% of voters are still undecided. Undecided voters are far more likely to have made their minds up about a candidate with near universal name recognition like Cuomo, who entered the race with >90% name recognition to Zohran’s 12-19%. Most are not truly undecided on a name as ubiquitous as his, and the word “undecided” can mean a few different things in a race of more than 2 candidates WITH the option for ranked choice voting. This poll was only offered in English and Spanish, a bottleneck that likely misses far more Zohran voters than any other voter base. Zohran has by far done the most multilingual outreach of any candidate, and has by far the most multilingual canvassers of any candidate. Additionally, the Zohran campaign is canvassing each neighborhood with campaign materials in languages tailored to the unique makeup of their location (for example, Zohran’s home district of Astoria doing outreach in Bengali, Greek, and Urdu). There are many cases thus far in early voting that Zohran campaign volunteers are the only canvassers of any candidate at a given polling place, and on top of that they are completely saturating the area and covering any possible approach to the polls to give voters and passersby campaign materials. Making inroads into the undecided demographic will be crucial to winning this race, and at times it feels like the Zohran camp is really the only one trying.

Something I find to be a glaring issue is that 45% of all polled are voters aged 60 and older, who break heavily to Cuomo. This isn’t at all consistent with previous primary elections, where they make up closer to 35% of voters. Likewise, only using previous elections to determine your sample size does not account for the much more energized younger peoples’ vote for Zohran, who is crushing the under 45 years demographic and especially the under 30 years demographic. Next is something that the pollster could not have predicted, but makes this skew towards the elderly so problematic for making a real prediction is that temperatures will be ~100°F (almost 38°C) across almost all of NYC on Election Day. These temperatures are downright dangerous to the elderly, who will be far more likely to have suppressed turnout in these conditions than any other demographic. This is especially problematic for Cuomo, whose voter base is underrepresented in early voting and skews towards inhabiting parts of the city with far lower urban density, meaning his largely elderly voter base is likely to have to travel further distances on a scorching hot Election Day to reach their polling place, where they are far more likely to end up having to wait to vote than if they had voted early. This is a real quadruple whammy that I have not seen a single news outlet discussing thus far, nor any outreach from the Cuomo campaign to try activate older voters to vote early.

Only 7% of those polled are Asian-American. This seems to be quite an oversight given the fact that these numbers represent the NY state average voter demographic, not that of NYC voter demographic, where Asian-American voters naturally constitute a much higher percent of the electorate and voting totals. Zohran Mamdani, also of South Asian heritage, is far more likely to expand the turnout of this demographic in a primary election, not decrease it compared to previous election averages. Mamdani is carrying large percentages in the Asian-American demographic, and undercounting it when a candidate who is Asian-American is one of the frontrunners is unlikely to give you close to an accurate result. Mamdani is also Muslim, and has made deep inroads with the 700K Muslim New Yorkers, a traditionally underrepresented voter demographic. This pollster only accounts for religions beyond Christianity and Judaism as “other” who account for 10% of those polled. With Israel and Palestine in the forefront of voters’ minds, especially Muslim voters, Zohran being the only strong voice in support of Palestine is likely to help boost those numbers.

Also of note is that in the 2021 election, Marist had predicted current mayor Eric Adams to cruise into an 11% victory, but that margin came down to only 1% in the final round of ranked choice voting. It is not very hard to poll for voters’ highest ranked candidate, but there is great variance and fluidity in who and where candidates fall within voters’ ranked choices. Many voters already understand that this is essentially a two person race now, and if Cuomo is not their first choice, he is far less likely to be anywhere else on their ballot. This is where pollsters are likely systematically underestimating Mamdani’s chances.