/c/slop tier analysis. This is just orientalism.

“The Persian Mohammedans, on the death of their beloved mullah, quickly fall into disarray. Truly, the orientals lack the je ne sais quoi that allows the maintenance of a modern nation-state.” This is the tldr of their trash tweet.

I want to just put out there that I can see Iran being successfully destroyed. Done Syria/Libya style.

The west has moved a lot of things into position for this.

And frankly, let’s recall Iran isn’t run by pragmatic, thoughtful people who grew up in the USSR education system like Russia, it isn’t run by Marxists like China or the DPRK. Iran is run by theocratic, reactionary, religious fundamentalists. Many of their religious policies like the mandatory hair-covering are unpopular with much of the younger society. That is an inherent, deep, deep, deep disadvantage in short and long-term planning, it is a problem because it makes them unpopular with their people because of their hard line on certain things. And given many young people in Iran have grown up never knowing the Shah it’ll be very easy for them to slip into thinking they can make peace with the west, or that they should join the west or at least not defend the current rulers of their country. Add on the fall of Syria, the amount of jihadists they can deploy as in ISIS puppet groups, kurds, etc into Iran as their proxies to carry out assassinations, to carry out attacks, to demoralize the society and gather intelligence, it’s a really sticky situation.

Fact is the zionists have been murdering a lot of top people in Iran very successfully. Their intelligence and likely penetration of the Iranian military is extreme and an extreme problem. They seem to know where to hit down to the day or time of day to kill these people and the Iranian air defenses are not stopping them. They don’t have control of their airspace, they don’t have air dominance like Russia does.

Given that and nothing else besides the recent string of victories of the zionists and the US need to cement complete control of the middle east/west Asia for their coming confrontation and cold war against China I think it’s very plausible. It’s depressing to think about but I think they’re not as strong as they present themselves as. That doesn’t mean they’re as weak as the zionists or US present them as but people trot out the Millennium challenge thing and that was back in 2000, Iran has suffered a lot under sanctions since then and the doctrines of warfare have changed a lot, drone warfare for example including on the seas has matured and evolved and it’s possible NATO capabilities in that area plus area denial weapons would be enough to destroy Iran in a naval fight and negate the advantage of all their small swarms of missile boats. You have to remember that challenge was in an era where it assumed old school 90s carrier battlegroups with a carrier or two, destroyers, various support ships, and a few helicopters and planes. Not with that plus tons of drones operated by people in pajamas in Germany and Tel Aviv all coordinated together.

The whole “the zionist entity is on the verge of collapse” thing so repeated here honestly comes across as copium/hopium blend based off propaganda and what we would rather be true. Objectively they’ve scored so many geopolitical and strategic wins from Syria falling to western puppets to Nasrallah’s assassination, Hezbollah’s stand-down (because Syrian supply lines were cut), the pager attacks, the Gaza genocide carried out so far and opposition to that viciously crushed all across the west, etc.

Ultimately most people here are hope-casting, or doom-casting. There is the fog of war that will not lift until the smoke has cleared and by that time the situation will likely have been decided in one direction or the other. The Iranians are likely to lie about successes and downplay failures. The zionists are likely to hide the Iranian successes and downplay their own failures. I don’t pay any attention at all to western imperialist propaganda “reporting” on this and haven’t since the genocide flared up really as I can’t stand them so I’m not really influenced by zionist claims just by the alleged facts on the ground, the history of who momentum is with (the zionists sadly), and other factors like that.

Optimism of the will, pessimism of the intellect. The west still has a lot of strength and I fear I see a grander plan unfolding successfully. China’s long-game approach to non-interventionism for example means tons of western interventions and securing the rest of the world against them by coups, wars, color revolutions, “moderate rebels”, etc early on in the game right now might blunt their ability for success by the time they are ready to do that and strong enough to do that. I don’t know the right moves, I just know we shouldn’t underestimate them and their power at this point.

I of course hope Iran brings the entity to its knees but hope does not reality make as I hoped Assad would prevail against the west and that Nasrallah would teach the zionists a bitter lesson and we can see how those things went.

This is what doomposting actually looks like, and not the generally reasonable criticism of the IRI/it’s actions that some people label as doomposting. I don’t know exactly what level of “intel” zei squirrel has access to, but I doubt it’s at the level where this would be more than speculation.

I don’t know that I can personal say that Iran has failed at deterence, given that I haven’t seen much in the way of Israeli strikes recently. However, there are people here who are more knowledgeable than me in those matters.

Will Israel try to assassinate Khamenei if they can? Possibly yeah, although there are wider regional/religious implications to killing Khamenei than their were to killing Nasrallah, given that he’s somewhat equivalent to the Shia pope.

In terms of “Khamenei hasn’t established a successor”, that’s hard for any of us to say since no one here is likely privy to that level of palace intrigue in Iran. I’ve seen some experts speculate that he’s been setting up his son to take over, but again that’s speculation. I don’t have and really haven’t had a problem saying that he should have stepped down years ago and that he’s too old to be leading in this moment, though.

Are they high or something, Iran is winning solidly

I dont know who this person is so the first question that comes to mind is who are they and what do they know about the internal workings of the Iranian state?

I’m just some internet asshole, I don’t know shit. I can hope for the best but at the end of the day I don’t know what the death of Khomeini might mean. Or whether the CIA will simply be able to activate some terrorist groups and it’ll cause Iran to fall apart the way Syria and Libya did. Is this person actually more knowledgeable than your average internet asshole, or just more verbose?

just dooming, probably due to the sudden and shocking collapse of syria + the seeming hezbollah capitulation zeisquirrel is now just probably things to work out perfectly for the zionists out of no where like it did in syria and lebanon