To make this more precise, we say that original data follows a normal distribution , and we possess samples for . Denoting a general sample as sample at generation , then the next generation model is estimated using the sample mean and variance:
Leading to a conditionally normal next generation model . In theory, this is enough to calculate the full distribution of . However, even after the first generation, the full distribution is no longer normal: It follows a variance-gamma distribution.
To make this more precise, we say that original data follows a normal distribution
, and we possess
samples
for
. Denoting a general sample
as sample
at generation
, then the next generation model is estimated using the sample mean and variance:
Leading to a conditionally normal next generation model
. In theory, this is enough to calculate the full distribution of
. However, even after the first generation, the full distribution is no longer normal: It follows a variance-gamma distribution.