All things considered, it has only been about 3 months since Trump took office, I feel like there is absolutely no way that this was just a single craze and from here things will even out.
I feel like until 2028 (or maybe 2026?) S&P 500 is going to look like a roller coaster.
What do you think?
I think Trump will dump and pump repeatedly until he’s stopped. Him and his billionaire bum chums will be absolutely raking it in.
Almost certain that Trumspki will do something stupid soon and then more stupid shit after that. The S&P will be look like a wild roller coaster.
Alot has happened in the last 6 years that has financially changed the world. Corona virus and the breakdown of global supply chains. Biden froze Russia’s investments in US treasuries resulting in the weaponization of the global reserve currency at the start of the Ukrainian war. Further trust was eroded by Trump and his abandonment of previously agreed upon trade deals and imposing tariffs of varying degrees that are adjusted at will, per emotion. Whatever your political leanings you best get ready for some difficult times as the world loses faith and trust in American global leadership.
Wake up, people.
Taiwan makes 50% of the world’s semiconductor ‘chips’. They just announced a US$100 billion investment to build a fab plant in the US, to manufacture chips in the US. A few things about that.
No American company has anywhere close to $100 billion to invest in anything, The American corporations used their profits to buy back their stock not to invest n production. What cash they had left over, they invested in stocks and bonds, which they have to try and sell before they can use the money. American corporations are. essentially, cash liquidity poor despite their huge profits. They do not have the liquidity to build anything. Musk may be the world’s richest man on paper, but a few Chinese financiers have much greater liquidity wealth than he does, and they are actually able to BUILD things. It is the difference between financialized wealth and actual money.
South Asia has enough investment money to build more kilometers (miles, if you are American) of high speed rail every year for the last several years than the US has TOTAL, and this money is just a drop in the bucket to them. There just is not enough liquidity in American corporations to build anywhere close to what China can do. American corporations squandered their wealth in the pursuit of maximizing profit payouts to shareholders, and the shareholders just used this capital to buy the same shares at higher and higher prices Not a penny of that money went into building new plant, it just went to increasing the price of existing shares.
Essentially, America is becoming a branch plant operation of Chinese corporations with profits going back to South Asian investors, and Americans get stupidly low wages. America is rapidly becoming the low-wage country of the world. The lower the stock market goes, the cheaper it is for South Asian money to buy up control of American corporations. When GM went bankrupt, China bought the restructured shares. When Ford almost went bankrupt, China bought the non-American Ford subsidiaries to save Ford, but essentially gained complete control of Ford. All profits from Ford auto sales go back to China. Haier now owns General Electric Appliance Division, and is now making what are essentially Haier appliances in America, using cheap slave-labor-wage Americans to build them cheaper than they can in China. All the profits, however, go back to China.
The Law of Unintended Consequences. The Trump misguided policies are just accelerating the sell-off of America. Trump wants foreign corporations to build their product in America, using cheap American labor, ignoring completely that the profits all flow out of America and the foreign investors now control American production.
Like Trump said, it is a good time to get rich. Like Trump dd NOT say, it is the South Asians that are getting rich. China owns most of the American treasury bills, now China will soon own most of the American production plant.
Good, China can lead, because the West fucking sucks at it. - a westerner.
I wholeheartedly agree. The West has gotten what it deserves. America squandered everything, and is now left with nothing but scraps.
I’m more concerned with the bond sell-off, that’s a very bad sign.
Can you explain a little further? I don’t know what you are talking about
The original reply was great, I just want to make it dead simple: if bonds continue to be sold off in these numbers, it indicates investors no longer believe in a future where the US dollar is the international reserve currency. This is very bad if you’re an American.
My knowledge is very superficial, but usually government bonds are a very safe investment. It’s basically how countries can even go into debt. In times of market uncertainty, you would expect that investors who sell off stocks put their money into bonds. However, investors are also selling US bonds, which means confidence in the US is waining. The US dollar is on track to losing it’s place as the world’s reserve currency.
This is all very bad for the US, since it also means they have to increase interests in bonds so people keep buying, which leads to more taxes since the interests on the bonds is the interest the US has to pay on their debt.
Please correct me if I am wrong
Some of the greatest daily gains in the stock market are during overall crashes.
Increased volatility is generally a bad sign for an economy’s health.
This. Uncertainty destroys value. No-one can deny that Trump generates uncertainty.
Your title makes it sound like you think the S&P is going to get a lot higher. This is because you mention growth, then use a tip of the iceberg analogy, which suggests that the rest of the iceberg is more growth. If you wanted to suggest a crash, you should have used a different analogy.
“Tip of the iceberg” means there is more lying in wait under the surface that can sink your ship. Sailors give icebergs a wide berth for this reason.
The point of the saying is that there is more danger than just what’s immediately visible.
Wait for some stupidity to reverse it again. Markets like predictability. This president is anything but.
I bet money on it reversing again (SPY). I intend to do so after this particular instance too.
S&P 500 is still up 5% over the last 12 months. Up 95% over the last 5 years. Any action on a shorter timeline than that is emotionally driven and should be largely ignored. Unless you’re day trading of course. You’re not, right?
That said, ya. We’re probably heading into a rough time.
We’re looking at negative GDP growth according to folks smarter than I am. 2 quarters of that and it’s probably a recession.
Additionally it looks like foreign investors are leaving the US Treasury market kicking up yields and foreign governments are getting uneasy about purchasing US made weapons or relying on US security guarantees which, again, reduces GDP both directly and indirectly.
2028 can’t come fast enough.
Optimistic of you to assume any of this will end in 2028. Trump and his fascist goons are already priming the electorate to accept a 3rd term. He’s not going away until he’s dead.
If we wait til 2028 we’ve all failed. He has already stated he’s finding a way for a 3rd term and is currently shredding the constitution. If we do not oust the man and his entire heritage foundation crony cuck ball lickers there won’t be any voting for you to do in 2027. Their goal is to take complete control and remain in power forever. It’s clearly stated in project 2025.
Yeah I know 2028 is gonna be lit
Yea but if you look at where S&P is today vs January 19th, it’s a much better representation.
What Trump is doing now will almost certainly outlast his presidency. One man, just one, has completely betrayed all of the trading relationships this country built over the course of a century, and even better, he did it unconstitutionally and Congress went along with it for their own enrichment, both Democrat and Republican.
Supply lines will be recalibrated. Our foreign partners will make new relationships with more dependable trading partners. (ie, China.) Over the course of the next decade or two, the utter stupidity of what Trump has done will play out to full effect. A few hundred Americans who shoved their heads up Trump’s ass will get richer, but long-term, this is going to hurt most Americans.
If you’re not diversifying your investments geographically you’re no longer diversified at all.
I hope people realize that trump was able to do all this because of years of bad law writing and eroding of the balance of powers. All that concentrated power is great until someone you disagree with sits in the throne you built. It would be nice if after trump, we learn our lesson and vastly shrink the power of the office. Unfortunately , I believe it is likely people won’t realize this and will put even more effort into strengthening the power of that throne after trump is gone, in an effort to more quickly undo his work, which of course means someone will be able to redo the damage even faster at a later time.
Same.
None of this happened in a vacuum. The more you look at how we got here, the more it becomes clear that despite the theatrics we really are under one-party rule.
Most shitty things in our life can be traced to Reagan. Trump is going to outdo that legacy by so much.
We’d need an actual left wing president to actually undo the damage, and there’s no way the corporate democratic party is going to allow that
You’re right.
We needed a Bernie, and Democrats happily subverted their own primary process to prevent it. Now, all you can do is take whatever measures possible you can to ensure your own survival.
Bernie might have helped but even if he got into office Congress would have stopped nearly everything he campaigned on.
The administrative state would not have been torn up but that’s just tinkering around the edges. Things like IRS free file expansion or banking at the post office.
The supreme Court would belong to Democrats but…tinkering around the edges.
If Bernie got re-elected (no guarantee, his first term would have ended in COVID and broken promises, probably impeachment by a Republican house). 2024 would 100% have gone to a Republican.
We don’t need Bernie now. His plans are mostly just a harder crank on the ratchet. Good, but insufficient. We need Allende. Someone that wants to build non-mariet solutions to make our lives better, and a movement behind them in Congress.
I have a feeling that greed will entice folks to continue trading with the US, but also while they diversify their trading partners. This will increase competition and somehow the world will be better off after this clown show is over.
What are some simple global things akin to the sp500 that brokers carry, or do you have any recommendations for a set it and forget it kind of thing with a decent and stable return?
Hi friend. There are a ton of options. Many invest in funds VT and VXUS, international funds run by Vanguard. SPDR is also a popular choice.
Take a week and just spend 30-60 minutes a day reading up on the various options in the global arena and make the best decision for yourself. The funds I mentioned above are a good starting point for doing your research and finding an option that fits your goals.
Thanks I’ll look into it
I’m not an expert, but I’m an index fund/mutual fund guy. I’m not looking for a lottery ticket, I just want to keep up with the market.
They’re basically the new savings account, right? If they don’t do well, chances are nothing really is, so your money is stagnating to the same degree as everyone else. No real loss.
Index funds are a great option, no doubt.
European Aerospace/Defense ETF - ticker EUAD
If a Democratic president is able to take office following the fuckery happening to basic voting rights, I fully expect the cycle to continue of the Democratic president being blamed for inflation/recession due to transferring wealth to people who don’t need to spend money from those who do (thanks, tariffs) in the first part of their term. Any economic gains at the end of their tenure will be conveniently ignored.
My next vote goes to:
Sweet Meteor of Death 2028
Trump will not make it past the mid-terms. Vance, who is the main mover-shaker behind the 2025 manifesto, will make sure the Senate impeaches Trump for treason, and the fact that under the Constitution he can NOT be President - an then Vance will assume the Presidency. If you think Trump is far-right, wait until Vance takes over. And since Vance was not ELECTED President, he can serve another two full terms - 10 years total. At the end of the ten years, The top 20% income earners - some 70 million Americans - will be living in luxury while the 0ther 80% will be nothing more than indentured servants. The Handmaidens Tale will be mild in comparison.
More likely they 25th him for his very obvious sundowning. Trying him for treason would be too likely to hurt them politically
Vance is in no way worried about what will hurt the Republican party politically. They let that concept lapse when they chose Trump as the candidate. By all previous political reasoning, Trump should have been a disaster politically, but that did not stop them.
The fact that the Supreme Court has already acknowledged that Trump should be disqualified from being President under the constitution for Treasonous actvity feeds right into their hands.
It could happen, but I think you’re wrong.
Trump is going to live to be 100 years old, like Kissinger did. The problem with your theory is that, after his first term, people know full well that he can’t be controlled.
Vance does not think so. Fact is, Trump is far too EASY to control by those around him. Even Putin knows how to manipulate him.
You say that, and then he’s handing out confidential secrets in casual conversation just to look cool.
Just look at the last week of tariff flip flops.
Trump can’t be controlled, at least until Congress changes hands in 2026.
Climbing? Wait the market opening react to the new semiconductor tariff bomb released 10 hours ago
Or walking back the laptop/phone exclusions, or China halting rare earth shipments, or…
The thing about the stock market, no one freaking knows. The market has taken horrible dives before and has recovered. I also don’t believe the USA is the only country that should be worried if something does go down. The fact that some experts are saying things could be different may be worrying, but ultimately no one knows. All we can do is try our best to prepare for the worst. I wouldn’t be surprised if the protests continue to grow over the summer months in the USA.
What climb? Its still down 8.61% since he took office. Crazy to celebrate losing almost 9%.
By contrast Biden’s second to last year was UP 24.23%. His last year was up yet another 23.31%.
To put dollars on this:
- If under Biden you’d put $100,000 into the S&P500 on Jan 2023 on Dec 31 2023 you’d have $124,230.
- If still under Biden you left your $124,230 in the S&P500 on Dec 31 2024 you’d have $153,188.01.
- Under trump if you’d put $100,000 into the S&P500 on Jan 2025 by today Apr 13th 2023 you’d have $91,390
I see no cause for celebration here.
And the bond market is in freefall… That’s not good, worse than the sp500.
I agree, yet so many are thinking thibgs are okay now, wild
The plan is to declare martial law on the 20th.
So we’ll see if that effects the stocks.
