How do you even know that US won’t recover? People emigrating still pales compared to people immigrating. Besides, oligarchs are pissed with tanking stock markets. And these oligarchs are also of immigrant background, like Nvidia and Google CEO. They still want people to come for cheap labour and their bottomline to grow.
How do you know it will? Stagnation is a thing in the US stock market as much as ‘line go up’ is a thing.
If anything millennials have had it better than anyone else. If your brain hasn’t hemorrhaged from reading that sentence then consider that what you are saying is only being said because millennials have seen the one of most incredible bull runs ever.
If you’re 35 years old that means you started your big boy career job about 15 years ago. In other words your investment portfolio if you were one of the individuals smart enough to begin diligently investing from the start. Look at the SP500 15 years ago. It was the bottom of the recession. The SP500 has gone in a straight line up from about 700 to 6000. So only a modest what like 800% gain. Of course it’s easy to say ‘cheap stock’ every time a big drop happens.
Now look at the 15 year period after the Dotcom bust. Now try the 1970s through the better part of the 1980s. Long periods of stagnation. Sideways moving stock market.
People need to be ready to stomach effectively zero gains until age 50 as much as you can tell them the SP500 could hit 12000 in the same period. There’s no guarantees unless your frame of reference is only the past 15 years. Then of course it is easy to say line always go up.
The US market is unlikely to stagnate either in much the same way as Japan experiences it now for thirty years. As I mentioned to another poster, the US’ broad policy is being very business-friendly and immigrant-friendly, whereas Japan is only the former. Besides, oligarchs themselves are pissed. And even the staunchest Republicans who supported Trump before, motioned a bill to curb the unilateral declaration of tariffs by the executive branch to prevent this from ever happening again. I never thought in my wildest dreams to say that, for once, the market is correcting itself.
Yes, they’re immigrants, which means they’re only in the US because it had been a convenient place. Maybe now’s the time to move the entire operation to a new company. In the case of some companies like Google, who already have a worldwide presence, and already claim to do most of their business out of small tax havens, it’s probably just a matter of having some lawyers adjust a few documents and voila, they’re now based out of Malta or something.
Domiciling to a new country for tax purposes does not mean all their operations will actually go there. Even if the new country is a convenient tax haven, does the new country have educated population, large workforce, good infrastructure, good rule of law? What are the legislations and regulations like? What are the local customs and culture like? Being a tax haven is not enough if those things are not applicable and conducive to do business. You mentioned Malta, they don’t have many people for many international businesses to set up and it is corrupt compared to other EU countries.
The reason US is the dominant economic power is because of ease of doing business due to more relaxed regulation and access to huge amounts of capital. There is a reason that more US companies are thriving than in other regions. Ask any European venture capitalists and entrepreneurs as to why they came to US, and they will cite access to capital, huge manpower and market and ease of doing business-- unlike in Europe.
It is unlikely that the US market will never recover should there be another Great Depression, because Americans-- both to ordinary people and elites-- still care about capitalism. Unless the US heads into a civil war, then okay maybe the American stock market is gone for good, but as long as it doesn’t happen-- US stocks will recover. Even as we speak, the Republicans have passed a motion to restrict the executive branch from imposing tariffs unilaterally. So that is a strong indication that oligarchs won’t let the market tank. The Republicans are all too aware what happened one hundred years ago that made them in minority in both senate and congress for 60 years.
Even if the new country is a convenient tax haven, does the new country have educated population, large workforce, good infrastructure, good rule of law?
Does the US? Rule of law is failing. Larger workforces exist elsewhere. The education system is being systematically defunded. The infrastructure has been falling apart for years and I’m pretty sure the money for rebuilding was stopped in Feb.
You are looking at the immediate impact of an outlier leadership rather than than the broader perspective. Fact of the matter is, the US is still the biggest market and still the leading country by long miles. I know the status of the US is under peril, but no country will surpass the US, nor will it even collapse in the more immediate future. Even the Republicans are pushing back since the market itself is getting affected. And you and I know what Republicans only care about.
Um. This isn’t really an outlier leadership anymore. It’s happened twice, and the vote in favor of it got bigger rather than smaller. Trump campaigned on doing this, and his vote share increased. A large proportion of Americans clearly want America First and America Alone, and maybe they don’t understand the consequences of that, but that’s what they want. I’m not saying the US is going to collapse, way too big of a bet to make, but to say no one will surpass the US in the near term… I dunno. I think you might be getting caught in American exceptionalism.
I think the world is reorienting itself. It’s going to be very painful for us, but we’ll get through it. And America will rattle its sabers and dream of Empire.
but to say no one will surpass the US in the near term…
Who is going to surpass the US in two years in every metric? China is still a “second world” country and dependent on the West for many trades. And Russia is, well, very much past its prime; and after the war in Ukraine, the financial and social consequences will have both immediate and long term consequences for the country.
If the US power declines, and it is already happening, it will be gradual. It will not happen in five years but in another generation or two.
How do you even know that US won’t recover? People emigrating still pales compared to people immigrating. Besides, oligarchs are pissed with tanking stock markets. And these oligarchs are also of immigrant background, like Nvidia and Google CEO. They still want people to come for cheap labour and their bottomline to grow.
How do you know it will? Stagnation is a thing in the US stock market as much as ‘line go up’ is a thing.
If anything millennials have had it better than anyone else. If your brain hasn’t hemorrhaged from reading that sentence then consider that what you are saying is only being said because millennials have seen the one of most incredible bull runs ever.
If you’re 35 years old that means you started your big boy career job about 15 years ago. In other words your investment portfolio if you were one of the individuals smart enough to begin diligently investing from the start. Look at the SP500 15 years ago. It was the bottom of the recession. The SP500 has gone in a straight line up from about 700 to 6000. So only a modest what like 800% gain. Of course it’s easy to say ‘cheap stock’ every time a big drop happens.
Now look at the 15 year period after the Dotcom bust. Now try the 1970s through the better part of the 1980s. Long periods of stagnation. Sideways moving stock market.
People need to be ready to stomach effectively zero gains until age 50 as much as you can tell them the SP500 could hit 12000 in the same period. There’s no guarantees unless your frame of reference is only the past 15 years. Then of course it is easy to say line always go up.
The US market is unlikely to stagnate either in much the same way as Japan experiences it now for thirty years. As I mentioned to another poster, the US’ broad policy is being very business-friendly and immigrant-friendly, whereas Japan is only the former. Besides, oligarchs themselves are pissed. And even the staunchest Republicans who supported Trump before, motioned a bill to curb the unilateral declaration of tariffs by the executive branch to prevent this from ever happening again. I never thought in my wildest dreams to say that, for once, the market is correcting itself.
Yes, they’re immigrants, which means they’re only in the US because it had been a convenient place. Maybe now’s the time to move the entire operation to a new company. In the case of some companies like Google, who already have a worldwide presence, and already claim to do most of their business out of small tax havens, it’s probably just a matter of having some lawyers adjust a few documents and voila, they’re now based out of Malta or something.
Domiciling to a new country for tax purposes does not mean all their operations will actually go there. Even if the new country is a convenient tax haven, does the new country have educated population, large workforce, good infrastructure, good rule of law? What are the legislations and regulations like? What are the local customs and culture like? Being a tax haven is not enough if those things are not applicable and conducive to do business. You mentioned Malta, they don’t have many people for many international businesses to set up and it is corrupt compared to other EU countries.
The reason US is the dominant economic power is because of ease of doing business due to more relaxed regulation and access to huge amounts of capital. There is a reason that more US companies are thriving than in other regions. Ask any European venture capitalists and entrepreneurs as to why they came to US, and they will cite access to capital, huge manpower and market and ease of doing business-- unlike in Europe.
It is unlikely that the US market will never recover should there be another Great Depression, because Americans-- both to ordinary people and elites-- still care about capitalism. Unless the US heads into a civil war, then okay maybe the American stock market is gone for good, but as long as it doesn’t happen-- US stocks will recover. Even as we speak, the Republicans have passed a motion to restrict the executive branch from imposing tariffs unilaterally. So that is a strong indication that oligarchs won’t let the market tank. The Republicans are all too aware what happened one hundred years ago that made them in minority in both senate and congress for 60 years.
Does the US? Rule of law is failing. Larger workforces exist elsewhere. The education system is being systematically defunded. The infrastructure has been falling apart for years and I’m pretty sure the money for rebuilding was stopped in Feb.
You are looking at the immediate impact of an outlier leadership rather than than the broader perspective. Fact of the matter is, the US is still the biggest market and still the leading country by long miles. I know the status of the US is under peril, but no country will surpass the US, nor will it even collapse in the more immediate future. Even the Republicans are pushing back since the market itself is getting affected. And you and I know what Republicans only care about.
Um. This isn’t really an outlier leadership anymore. It’s happened twice, and the vote in favor of it got bigger rather than smaller. Trump campaigned on doing this, and his vote share increased. A large proportion of Americans clearly want America First and America Alone, and maybe they don’t understand the consequences of that, but that’s what they want. I’m not saying the US is going to collapse, way too big of a bet to make, but to say no one will surpass the US in the near term… I dunno. I think you might be getting caught in American exceptionalism.
I think the world is reorienting itself. It’s going to be very painful for us, but we’ll get through it. And America will rattle its sabers and dream of Empire.
Who is going to surpass the US in two years in every metric? China is still a “second world” country and dependent on the West for many trades. And Russia is, well, very much past its prime; and after the war in Ukraine, the financial and social consequences will have both immediate and long term consequences for the country.
If the US power declines, and it is already happening, it will be gradual. It will not happen in five years but in another generation or two.