This is an interesting take, especially coming from a non-gaming focused tech website like Ars Technica. I feel like it’s been too long since people were truly hyped about half life 3 though, and this wouldn’t be enough, even if Valve did go through with it.
People are increasingly unhappy with windows though, and the EoL of windows 10 may push people to Linux anyways.
I think his is underestimating how big HL3 is as a part of gaming culture. Half Life really wasn’t part of my generation, but I grew up with HL3 being memed constantly. The constant fake leaks and rumors have kept the idea alive. Just a couple months ago I saw a lot of people genuinely believe it was going to be announced during The Gaming Awards thanks to a leak that Valve would be present. Every gaming event has chat full of people spamming Half Life 3 memes. Plus, Alyx got a lot of younger gamers to play the series.
If Half-Life 3 were actually announced the hype would 100% be there, even if most of it will be from people who had never played the games.