OverNew data suggests a troubling new phase in the Kremlin’s tactics that directly threatens the lives of Europeans.
the past three years, Russia has waged an increasingly brazen campaign of sabotage and subversion against Ukraine’s European allies. In 2024, Moscow significantly escalated its tactics—turning to assassination, compromising water facilities across several European countries, and targeting civil aviation.
Just this week, Duma member Alexander Kazakov claimed Russian sabotage in the Baltic Sea was part of a military operation aimed at provoking NATO and enlarging Russia’s control over the area. While events such as the cutting of undersea cables have garnered substantial media attention, no systematic effort has been made to assess the full scope and nature of Russia’s actions against Europe. Analysis from Leiden University exposes how far Russia is willing to go to weaken its European adversaries and isolate Ukraine from vital support. It paints a chilling picture of the potential for Russian escalation below the nuclear threshold—and underlines the need for a concerted and assertive European response, which has been lacking so far.
Nothing concrete, certainly, but that’s part of the point. It all seems like an exploration for various ways one can throw sand into the gears of a society without risking anything genuinely escalatory. It’s a long game.