Statistics Canada confirmed last week that 351,679 babies were born in 2022 — the lowest number of live births since 345,044 births were recorded in 2005.
The disparity is all the more notable given that Canada had just 32 million people in 2005, as compared to the 40 million it counted by the end of 2022. In 2005, it was already at historic lows for Canada to have a fertility rate of 1.57 births per woman. But given the 2022 figures, that fertility rate has now sunk to 1.33.
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Of Canadians in their 20s, Statistics Canada found that 38 per cent of them “did not believe they could afford to have a child in the next three years” — with about that same number (32 per cent) saying they doubted they’d be able to find “suitable housing” in which to care for a baby.
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A January survey by the Angus Reid Group asked women to list the ideal size of their family against its actual size, and concluded that the average Canadian woman reached the end of their childbearing years with 0.5 fewer children than they would have wanted
“In Canada, unlike many other countries, fertility rates and desires rise with income: richer Canadians have more children,” it read.
Tax domestic speculators. It’s such an easy solution. It’s going to be painful because it’s been allowed to happen for so long. Canadians are doing this to other Canadians but no politician wants to do this to help end this gross cycle of exploitation, add in the fact provinces like Ontario that remove things like rent control and things become even further out of reach.
but no politician wants to do this
Because it’s political suicide. They have a Silver Tsunami coming up, and thanks to a) many companies weakening retirement plans (defined benefit? LOL), b) recessions wiping out people’s savings, there’s been a concerted shift to using home-ownership to bandage over old-age income security.
Prior to this, moderate investment and company pensions were enough to see you through, but that’s largely gone–just another part of our society that we sold off so that the rich can get more tax breaks. The cherry-on-top? We sold off LTCs to private companies, so elder-care is now a for-profit luxury.
The only way Boomers can retire is home equity. Heck, it’s the only thing fuelling our economy in general.
Of course, this is fixable: tax the rich. Pay for a society that works for everyone, not just Galen Weston or David Thompson. It would have been easier to do this back in the 1990s (before the problem really started in earnest) or before 2018 (when it got fully out of control) but it’s still possible.
This is quickly becoming a crisis for the next twenty years but nobody is doing a god damned thing to actually fix the cost of living issue.
We need to vote in people affected by this, not benefitting from it.
Do you have the time or resources to run for office?
Wealth and power is a feedback loop.
I would love to pump some baby batter into my gf and start having a kids, can’t do that while we’re stuck living paycheque to paycheque on a combined 130k in my parents basement.
I hate the beginning of this comment
I hate that I can’t do it so I guess we’re even?
Yeah fair XP. Apologies for totally disregarding the larger issue, bud. Didn’t mean to minimize one of our generational issues
All good man lol, just trying to add a little humour to the devastating reality of maybe never having kids.
You technically can, but she has to be on the pill.
She does have an iud so I could before, but her Dr put her on medication for her rheumatoid arthritis last year that causes birth defects so at the moment we gotta double up. Even if that wasn’t the case, still couldn’t afford to have a kid right now.
Oof, well, no love baby juices for her.
Unless there was another hole where it could be injected 🤔
(◕ヮ<)
How bad is housing in Canada right now? This is not a prominent topic here in Europe, so let’s say you look for a 200 m² house in the outer parts of a bigger city, what would be the price for that?
Start with income perspective. The average annual salary in 2022 was just under $60,000. Nationally, the average house price in summer 2023 was a bit over $750,000. These incomes and house prices are affected pretty strongly by the lower incomes and lower housing costs in rural Canada vs the major cities like Vancouver and Toronto
So… shift attention to the cities. In Toronto and Vancouver, the average house price is around $1,200,000 give or take a little. You need at a combined income of least $280,000 to qualify for a house like that (or have substantial equity built up in previous home purchases). Most people are earning at or close to the national average… with a few - especially those in STEM careers (sw devs for example) up over $100,000 per year.
I live in a suburb city (I own my house)… it’s inconveniently located if you want/need to be in the core city centre for work (I’m about 3 hours commute right now if I needed to go in to a downtown office… thankfully I don’t). Houses on my street are relatively new (most built in 2019 and 2020). The houses currently for sale are listing between $1,250,000 and $2,350,000.
Renting can be really awful in Canada too… you get stunts like this https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/this-is-egregious-sisters-shocked-when-toronto-landlord-raises-rent-to-9-500-a-month-1.6548845 simply because they can…
tl;dr Housing in Canada is bonkers
Thanks for the insight, this is crazy. We are looking for houses right now here in Germany, and and the last one we visited was 269 m² for around 500.000€ and 30 minutes drive away of the inner city of the next major city. I hope politics does something about your problem, it can not stay like this.
The issue is that investors are buying houses 100k over asking price same or next day because they don’t plan on living in them, they just want to make the investment and prop up the housing market bubble for as long as they can.
Speculators need to be heavily taxed. We need to discourage this and put a stop to it ASAP.
Everything is worth what people will pay for it. The problem is that we aren’t building anywhere near enough housing.
In America conservative estimates are 4 empty homes for every person.
That can’t possibly be true. Just using simple logic: if someone owns a vacant house or unit, why wouldn’t they rent it out considering the absurd rents that can be charged in this market?
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That’s a US statistic. Their housing market is very different from Canada’s.
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It’s clearly referring to seasonal residences, many of which are properties that aren’t suitable for year round use. My uncle owns a cabin up north that is only accessible by sled in the winter. Should that really be considered an “empty house”? It’s a huge red herring to measure every single building someone can sleep in as housing, rather than measure the buildings people are actually treating as housing.
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It isn’t “4 empty homes for every person”. That’s a crazy number. It says some counties (again in the US) (specifically rural counties) have more seasonal vacant residences than non-seasonal. Which makes total sense. The county where my uncle’s cabin is located doesn’t have any major towns in it. It’s just cottage country.
None of that has anything to do with the housing crisis.
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I bought a townhouse that was 1700sqft (~150m^2) in Markharm, a suburb of the GTA (1hr to the center of toronto by car, 1.5hrs by bus), in a pretty bad area for 800K CAD during a slight market crash during covid. By all accounts this was an exceptionally good deal, by realtor didn’t think we could get anything for under 900. I sold that townhouse for 1.1 mil in 2023.
It’s wild to consider that $130k combined income can’t even get you on the lowest rung of the housing ladder.
Now consider that the average wage - half of all people make less - is only $48k in Canada.
There are a few people in my family that are married with good jobs and own their own homes and they are not having children. They are focusing on other things. I am proud of them as I am proud of those in my family who have chosen to have children. This does not need to be one more point of division. It is OK to have kids and it is OK to not have kids.
Financial security should not be the biggest factor in deciding if a family wants kids, but it the modern economic system it is a very significant factor. It is hard imagining having another mouth to feed, spend liesure time with, and do parental tasks while both partners are working 50 hours a week while living paycheck to paycheck with little ability for savings to keep up with inflation or costs of living.
I have friends that decided kids where expensive. But they still want one. This, they adopted a dog. The dog is their kid now.
Oh hey! It’s literally describing my current situation.
Got engaged, got a promotion, have solid long term housing (“renting” from family)
Still can’t keep more than 1.5k in savings month over month. No way in hell in having a baby in these conditions… and i feel like I’m better off than most
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Ah yes, children are only good for manual labor and nothing else
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What do you think you wrote in the second paragraph? Because I’m seeing “gone the way of the horse” and “usefulness supplanted by modern technology”
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I’m pointing out that your second paragraph continues to make the point that the main purpose of having children is for them to perform work
To be fair, you did include some people “keeping a child around for enjoyment” which is still pretty dehumanizing
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Financial capitalism is another factor. Investing in the housing to have financial products with high financial return. It’s part of the speculation allowed in our neoliberal economy.
Add that the incomes are the same for decades and you end up with this. Housing or better having a decent place to live has to be a fundamental right.
Imagine wanting to have a child in times where the only way to afford a house is to never purchase a single thing with your next 4 decades worth of pay cheques from a high paying job.
Then come find out you get to finally own a single square foot of land because everyone else comes in and swoops up everywhere else or the bar rises quicker than you could ever hope to catch up with or some other dumb reason.
There’s too many people on this planet anyways.
By what measure? Industry and a small minority of extremely wealthy people are setting the agenda to destroy the planet, not average people.
By what measure?
Literally every objective measure of our planet’s health? We are permanently changing the atmosphere, simultaneously causing a mass extinction event, and virtually every environmental preserve and tourist attraction is facing huge damage from overuse.
Every human being has a carbon cost, none of us are carbon negative or neutral, until we build systems that change that, every extra human we add is destroying our planet faster.
I mean if you’re concerned about the actual planet then don’t worry the Earth will survive with or without humans lol. If your concern is our survival as a species then that’s a different story.
Look at what we did to the planet with the current (and smaller) population sizes. You think adding MORE people isn’t going to become an issue?
We are, in the near future, going to have a mass migration of people away from no longer inhabitable land.
Those people you’re talking about aren’t going to give up power and let “average people” right the ship. And those same “average people” have been placated and conditioned to buy shiny trinkets and celebrate touchdowns and home runs instead of organizing and uprooting the real problem makers.
By just about every measure? Would you rather have a smaller population and the same standard of living, or a larger population and a considerably lower standard of living? The earth’s resources and abilities to heal itself are finite. The more people we have, the more restrictive our quality of life needs to be. Instead of having a house on some usable land, a garden, and some chickens, you’re forced into a stacked box, with one window, and no yard, surrounded by other stacked boxes. Plus the impact of everything you do is magnified. Oh, you want to drive to the store? Better walk 20 blocks instead, because we’re already at our carbon capacity. That last example was hyperbole, but it’s not that far fetched. Basically a lower population gives us a lot more leeway to live our lives comfortably.
Totally agree. We should have <1B people living like kings, not 10B people living like peasants. A lot of environmentally unsustainable things become perfectly sustainable if there are fewer people on the planet. Like, we shouldn’t have to be worried about the impact of beef production or overfishing - the planet should be able to sustain the number of humans that want to eat those things. At 8-10B it obviously can’t.
The fact the nearest store is 20 blocks away is a consequence of bad urban planning
Yes, but that knowledge doesn’t change the distance you need to travel to go there.
Amputation doesn’t cure a systemic disease. Very little has to change about most people’s status of living in order for the vast majority of people to live comfortably without being forced into buying plastic, driving everywhere, etc. These are bad planning and poor oversight issues that have nothing to do with numbers of people in a population.
The majority of the remedy that would solve the issue long-term is opportunities and competition in green tech (which is being held back in favour of propping up a few fossil fuel giants), refusing to excuse wasteful and damaging industry practices, fugitive emissions, wastes of resources, etc. The ones who would be most likely to see significant change to their lives are the ones who are also individually wasting the most resources (with private jets, yachts, powering multiple homes, etc.)
But sure, give that small minority of super-wasteful people an excuse to waste even more and kill people off (since we don’t have time for natural causes or accidental deaths to make a difference) to prop up their lifestyle.
Yes I agree, those are all good strategies. But to implement all of those things on a global scale takes generations. In the meantime, we’re stuck with an old system, designed for a much smaller populace. Our growth outpaced our progress.
Edit: and to be clear I never said a damned thing about killing people. You added that. Choosing to not have kids is not even remotely similar to killing people.
There’s also the fact that heavily developed nations with declining birth rates are also overwhelmingly responsible for climate change.
Ugh, I hate this argument. I always wonder: so what do you propose ? Many countries’ retirement system are built on the active population paying for the retired population. What do you think happens when there are more retired than actives?
Low birth rate is a real serious issue for many countries. The problem is not overpopulation, it’s poverty and how we manage our resources.
Capitalism and retirement is set up as a pyramid scheme. We shouldn’t be looking at situations that were recklessly arranged assuming endless growth and saying “how do we prevent population contraction” - that’s insanity. We need to figure out how to retool society for a post-growth world.
If the only way to prevent the music from stopping is a pyramid scheme, we’re all fucked.
No there’s not. There’s too many people for capitalism
I have long speculated that the reason why birthrate goes down in societies with a higher standard of living is because a higher standard of living effectively reduces the “carrying capacity” of the environment for humans. Which is not a bad thing, IMO, it’s just the underlying explanatory reason for why we see this pattern. Access to family planning and such is just part of the mechanism this operates by.
A common pattern in population dynamics is the S-curve, where population initially grows in an exponential-like pattern and then flattens back out again as it approaches the environment’s carrying capacity. I think we’ll see that with the human population too, and we are in the unique position as a species of being able to somewhat control where that carrying capacity will be. In this specific case here, we could boost our capacity for population growth by making housing more affordable.
Unless something happens - like, say, running out of manufactured fertilizers - that reduces the carrying capacity. Then we’ll have a bell curve.
Education … the more educated and informed a population becomes, the fewer children they have. It doesn’t mean that the population is very highly educated overall … even just a small uptick of an education lowers the birthrate. It just means that with a bit of knowledge, experience and education people become less likely to want to have children.
Is it directly the education or is it because more education leads to making more money?
It’s access to contraception combined with material conditions. It’s much easier for people to make the choice of whether they want to have children these days, and a lot of people are looking around and saying, “nah.”
at the same time we’ve had the highest immigration numbers. Canada was always immigrant country. I don’t see it as a negative thing in general. Lots of immigrants and their children are higher motivated individuals so it could be a good thing. One thing to watch out for is erosion of values in society. So just welcome newcomers and show them what does it mean to be Canadian 😃
But immigration is mostly made up of refugees who are usually pretty poor, and they come here and we have no housing for them. It’s honestly embarrassing that we welcome so many and yet they end up in shelters.
I wonder how much of the cost of living crisis is due to our shitty productivity?
It seems like regulations and government programs favour incumbents, be it telecoms who don’t want to deal with upstarts, fish plant owners who don’t want to automate, Tims franchises who don’t want to pay their workers, or NIMBYs.
I get that there were supply chain issues due to COVID-19, but did those cause problems, or exacerbate existing issues?
High cost of living is one of the causes of recent drops in productivity. There might even be a feedback loop hidden so where in there.
Considering that if you aren’t making a lot, you can get quite a bit of money every month for each kid through child benefits until they are 18, I don’t think the cost of housing is the issue.
Here’s a radical thought: Maybe people simply don’t want to be burdened by kids.
Perhaps if we stopped pressuring mothers into believing that they NEED to have kids, or that couples can’t be complete without a real family.
Maybe then we can start normalizing the fact that not everyone actually wants (or needs) kids.
EDIT: For you idiots downvoting, could you at least read the study? It agrees with what I wrote!
“I’m comfortable, surely everyone else is then.”
It’s not a radical thought, it’s just wrong.
Desired fertility is higher than actual fertility. https://ifstudies.org/blog/why-canadian-women-arent-having-the-children-they-desire
I have three kids, and if money wasn’t a factor my wife and I would probably have 4 or 5
As the oldest of six, having grown up quite poor, thank you for stopping while still in your means.
Desired fertility is higher than actual fertility.
From that same study, you need to acknowledge that many women also REGRET having kids or too many kids.
““excess” births have a larger unhappiness effect than “missing” births individually,”
Also, from that same study, which basically proves my original point:
“Many factors influence Canadian women in having fewer children than they desire, but the most influential factors relate to the ideas that children are burdensome, that parenting is intensive and time-consuming, and that women want to finish self-development and exploration before having children. The view that parenting is demanding is a bigger factor for low fertility than is housing or childcare costs.”
Literally, the study being reported says that housing and childcare costs are NOT the biggest factor. Exactly as I said.
I wish you guys downvoting would at least read the damn study before shooting the messenger.
Much of that regret comes from cost pressures, not the actual existence of the children. Even if you can “afford” children, having to have both parents work full time to afford them doesn’t make it easy to actually raise them.
If one parents was SAH and money still wasn’t a problem there would be far fewer regrets.
Much of that regret comes from cost pressures, not the actual existence of the children.
Well, yeah, it’s not saying that people hate their kids. LOL
According to the same survey the article linked to, people are less happy when they have more kids (than ideal) vs having fewer kids (than ideal). It doesn’t say that cost pressures are a main factor.
If you look at the reasons why people don’t want kids (original survey linked in the article), then you could assume that those same factors explain why people having regrets. No opportunity to grow as a person, the time commitment, less freedom, the derailment of their career, etc. (per the survey results).
A different study said that:
" Older parents with minor children still at home are less happy than their empty nest contemporaries by about 5 or 6 percentage points. And … Both men and women report less personal happiness and less happy marriages when there are minor children around the house."
But I suppose happiness and regret can be different for each person. Having a child grow up to be a successful, contributing member of society would probably make parents happy.
I’d say that the vast majority of parents aren’t in that situation, though. They not only have to continue to support their child into adulthood, but they never had a chance to develop personally because their child was never independent enough. I can see how that would cause a lot of regret for older parents.
That’s a joke, right? When I looked it was only 500 to 620 a month per kid.
You have baby items to worry about, needing a crap ton of clothes (kids grow a LOT), having adequate nutrition (growth spurts too), school supplies, and more. If you’re already barely making ends meet, of COURSE you’ll struggle if you add another human being. Of course, cost of living also varies by area, as well as public transportation. Without that, you’d have to hope that you live near essentials like a family doctor, or you’d have to pony up even more money for a car and child seat.
If that’s not enough, you also get the fun of society looking down on your for “having kids before you were ready”. Many of us heard that from adults throughout the entire time we grew up. Why voluntarily walk into that? Nah. IF I ever have a kid, it won’t be untilI can guarantee that that doesn’t happen.
I think they misunderstood a Stats Canada paper to get a wildly unrealistic cost estimate. I linked it and some numbers in a reply further up.
I’ve raised two, and they are rising their own.
If an extra 500+ a month isn’t enough, then you are overspending for no good reason!
Buy second hand, learn how to be frugal with certain items, get most larger items from a baby shower (if you have one), etc., don’t get sucked into blitz marketing that targets new parents, etc.
Kids become more of a financial burden when they grow up… age 10-18 and beyond, and that money is still rolling in.
If that’s not enough, you also get the fun of society looking down on your for “having kids before you were ready”. Many of us heard that from adults throughout the entire time we grew up.
That’s my point from my original comment. Society is pressuring people into “wanting” kids, but a great number of people simply don’t, and that’s OK!
Housing is an easy example. One bedroom or bachelor’s pads are, in my area, ~1200/month. Not the nicest ones at that price, but decent. You jump up to a two bed or a Ben+a den, and you’re looking at 1800/month at least. At a three bed, it’s close to 2500/month.
Even if you assume those are on the larger side for price jumps, if you’re barely able to scrape by with two people in a bachelor’s apartment or in a one bedroom, there’s no way you can “afford” it solely by CCB benefits. Almost all the benefit is eaten up by housing increases alone! Then add on childcare, and CCB isn’t enough to give those feeling like they’re just hanging on wiggle room to raise a child.
Kids are an enormous financial burden early on, especially for the small things. Kids get sick a lot, so you need to have a job that will allow you flexibility, or else you’ll lose money for unpaid days off for doctors appointments or to sit at home with them when they’re puking.
Kids need daycare unless youre staying home, which is suuuuper expensive these days. They also have limited hours, which if you’re stuck working a shitty job, you may not be able to make.
Even second hand, clothes are expensive, and with how fast kids grow, it’s an expense worth noting.
All in all, if you’re well off, yeah it may not be a big problem for you, but for the people that are already struggling, it’s a large factor into why they’re not having kids yet.
FYI: Stats Canada published recent data on the cost of raising a kid in Canada (how much parents spent). It’s estimated that low-income homes spend around $30,000 for a child from 0 - 12 years of age ($214 / month on average).
Just throwing in some numbers in the child benefit calculator for two people making $35,000 each with around $1200 in rent a month, they’d get $207 in child benefits + other benefits (climate action incentives, etc.).
$7 out of pocket to spend on the kid… if you are overspending like people usually do.
But I do agree that there are areas where kids can be more expensive, like high-cost daycare. This is less of a concern in multi-generational families or single-income families, where the child can be watched by their parent or family member (more common in Canada, especially among immigrant families).
These are things that vary from family to family, and are ever-changing – you can’t predict what expenses you’ll have 10 year from now. What if the kid is born with a special need? This goes well beyond the “cost of living”.
Kids are not risk-free, and we shouldn’t act like money is the only factor here.
If this is the link you’re talking about, your numbers are way off - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11f0019m/11f0019m2023007-eng.htm
That shows that even for low income families (<83k/yr), they spend an average of 14,000$/yr on each child. That’s way higher than your estimated 30,000/ages 0-7, so I’m curious where you got your data from.
I don’t discount that there’s a societal push for people to get older and make sure they’re confident in wanting kids before they have them, and with low cost birth control we’ve reduced accidental pregnancies, but cost is still an enormous factor.
I’ve raised two, and they are rising their own.
Costs have increased significantly in the past few decades.
If an extra 500+ a month isn’t enough, then you are overspending for no good reason!
The only after school care available in my community costs around $400/mo. I’m in a rural area, so it’s probably higher in cities.
Daycare may be cheaper now due to the $10/day thing, but I’m not sure how many spots are available.
Swimming lessons are $200-300. Sports typically run for a season, but they start around $200. We’ve got our kids in “cheap” sports, but even then, costs add up.
I know not everyone wants to hear it, but having a child requires sacrifice.
If it’s more affordable/practical to have one parent stay at home with the child, while the other works, then that’s what needs to be done. There’s no shame with one parent watching their own kid while their partner works, then their partner can care for the child while the other goes to their job.
These are things that need to be planned and discussed BEFORE having a child. It’s all part of the deal.
Sports have always been expensive, and prohibitive to the point of discriminating against low-income families. This is not a childcare issue, but an issue with how sports and services are being delivered. I went through the same with gymnastics for our daughter, and various activities for our son, so I completely understand how unfair that is.
Your anecdote does not exist in today’s world. They do not compare.
OK boomer
Here’s a radical thought: Maybe people simply don’t want to be burdened by kids.
The studies cited in the op-ed show many people who want kids aren’t having them due to the cost of living.
Maybe then we can start normalizing the fact that not everyone actually wants (or needs) kids.
Definitely, that would be healthy for people and more environmentally sustainable.
The op-ed is not referring to people who don’t want kids, however, it’s looking at surveys where people say they can’t afford to have kids.
The studies cited in the op-ed show many people who want kids aren’t having them due to the cost of living.
That’s not true. The study cited expliciitaly states that:
“… the most influential factors relate to the ideas that children are burdensome, that parenting is intensive and time-consuming, and that women want to finish self-development and exploration before having children. The view that parenting is demanding is a bigger factor for low fertility than is housing or childcare costs.”
The op-ed is not referring to people who don’t want kids…
Fair point, but it is basing the op-ed on a survey that does refer to women who did not want kids, and when you consolidate the data, it’s pretty clear that there’s some reporting bias at play.
Still, to the point, cost of living is not the driving factor to low fertility.
Good! Maybe we can get back to sane population levels and half of these problems with the housing market and global warming will just resolve themselves. The earth’s population has more than doubled since I was born, and let me tell ya, it’s noticeable. It’s noticeable everywhere I look.
LoL no. Let’s import people to continue Canada’s growth and keep providing cheap labor to Canada’s corporations.
Our form of capitalism requires constant growth. One way to grow profits is to sell to more people.
If we stop immigration our economy collapses. If we keep it up, lots of other things collapse.
Fuck cars.
Cars are taking our living spaces, roads, excessive parking. Cars are ruining out health, pollution, no one walk anymore. Cars are expensive for everyone. Cars are a drain on society’s wealth and yet, we made damn sure that everyone need one.
Cars are probably one of the biggest factor, in my opinion, for a lot of problems in society.
