"If the government can prove this aspect of the case, it will be exceptionally difficult for the former president to mount a defense," Paul Collins said.
…But they aren’t. Trump currently leads in polls for the Republican nomination by something like 30 points over DeSantis (who I think would be even worse than Trump). The next closest contender, Vivek Ramaswamy, is currently polling in the single digits.
Moreover, the people that vote in primaries do not look like the people that vote in general elections; primaries are going to attract people with the strongest political feelings, and those tend to be Trump loyalists.
And finally, Republican primaries are won by plurality, not majority. Trump won the primaries in 2016 by consistently winning 35% or so of the vote, with three other candidates splitting the rest. Even if Trump was the last place candidate by the remaining 65% of Republican primary voters, he still won because he was the first choice for 35% or so. If Republicans did ranked-choice primaries, he’d probably lose. But they don’t, and they won’t.
Per my prior comment, in straw polls, Biden and Trump are pretty closely matched. Trump has a larger unfavorability rating (which is good if you don’t want him re-elected), but their favorability ratings are pretty damn close. Definitely way too close for me.
I’m not a Biden fan; I’d much rather see Cornell West running as the Democratic nominee, rather than as a Green (not that he’s electable, given Republicans). But I would far, far rather see Biden than Trump. Neither one gets the country where it needs to be, but Trump is actively working to make the country worse. If people think that Trump doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning–which is what happened in 2016–then they’ll get complacent. Every goddamned person in this country needs to understand that Trump is an existential threat, much like the heat dome over 1/2 of the US.
…But they aren’t. Trump currently leads in polls for the Republican nomination by something like 30 points over DeSantis (who I think would be even worse than Trump). The next closest contender, Vivek Ramaswamy, is currently polling in the single digits.
Moreover, the people that vote in primaries do not look like the people that vote in general elections; primaries are going to attract people with the strongest political feelings, and those tend to be Trump loyalists.
And finally, Republican primaries are won by plurality, not majority. Trump won the primaries in 2016 by consistently winning 35% or so of the vote, with three other candidates splitting the rest. Even if Trump was the last place candidate by the remaining 65% of Republican primary voters, he still won because he was the first choice for 35% or so. If Republicans did ranked-choice primaries, he’d probably lose. But they don’t, and they won’t.
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Per my prior comment, in straw polls, Biden and Trump are pretty closely matched. Trump has a larger unfavorability rating (which is good if you don’t want him re-elected), but their favorability ratings are pretty damn close. Definitely way too close for me.
I’m not a Biden fan; I’d much rather see Cornell West running as the Democratic nominee, rather than as a Green (not that he’s electable, given Republicans). But I would far, far rather see Biden than Trump. Neither one gets the country where it needs to be, but Trump is actively working to make the country worse. If people think that Trump doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning–which is what happened in 2016–then they’ll get complacent. Every goddamned person in this country needs to understand that Trump is an existential threat, much like the heat dome over 1/2 of the US.