"If the government can prove this aspect of the case, it will be exceptionally difficult for the former president to mount a defense," Paul Collins said.
The NYS charges are a joke. Yes, it’s a crime, but it’s also the kind of thing that would normally get pled out to the level of a parking ticket if it was a one-off thing. Which this appears to be. (One-off, in this case, meaning that they don’t have multiple instances to charge him with.) It looks political, because it probably is. Jail time is incredibly unlikely, even if the case wraps prior to the election.
Fani Willis here in GA will have a pretty solid case, assuming that the grand jury indicts (which is probable). But that case will probably get bumped in favor of the federal charges, and would be unlikely to go to trial, and be concluded prior to the election. And if Trump wins prior to the trial being concluded, then a conviction won’t matter. Yeah, he can’t pardon himself from state charges, but he’s not going to prison while he’s in office.
It will be interesting what happens if Trump primaries during the trial, gets picked up for the Republican nomination, then gets convicted and sent to prison. Does it just go to the #2 in the primaries? Will the right galvanize behind their second choice? Will a bunch of Forever Trumpers be upset enough to just not vote? With Trump out of the race, will the Left have enough momentum without Trump as the villain to vote against (yeah, I get the alternative is DeSantis, who is not exactly popular with anyone who doesn’t think Romney is a Leftist)?
Let’s throw some more logs on this fire….
Donald Trump has been charged with 37 criminal counts covering seven different violations of federal law
The election is nov 2024
The trial starts in august 2023
There are at least 10 other candidates running for republican
And this pardon would only apply to a federal conviction while Trump is facing charges in both state and federal courts.
The NYS charges are a joke. Yes, it’s a crime, but it’s also the kind of thing that would normally get pled out to the level of a parking ticket if it was a one-off thing. Which this appears to be. (One-off, in this case, meaning that they don’t have multiple instances to charge him with.) It looks political, because it probably is. Jail time is incredibly unlikely, even if the case wraps prior to the election.
Fani Willis here in GA will have a pretty solid case, assuming that the grand jury indicts (which is probable). But that case will probably get bumped in favor of the federal charges, and would be unlikely to go to trial, and be concluded prior to the election. And if Trump wins prior to the trial being concluded, then a conviction won’t matter. Yeah, he can’t pardon himself from state charges, but he’s not going to prison while he’s in office.
It will be interesting what happens if Trump primaries during the trial, gets picked up for the Republican nomination, then gets convicted and sent to prison. Does it just go to the #2 in the primaries? Will the right galvanize behind their second choice? Will a bunch of Forever Trumpers be upset enough to just not vote? With Trump out of the race, will the Left have enough momentum without Trump as the villain to vote against (yeah, I get the alternative is DeSantis, who is not exactly popular with anyone who doesn’t think Romney is a Leftist)?
Should be interesting if he ends up convicted.