AI Generated Summary (I’ve been expirimentign with it):
- Kamala Harris had a tough day in the forecast despite gains in national polls.
- She leads by 3.8 points nationally but has a 47.3% chance of winning the Electoral College.
- The model adjusts for convention bounce, assuming her polls are inflated.
- Harris’s numbers may improve if she maintains her current standing.
- A concern is the lack of polls showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, a key state.
- Recent polls show Pennsylvania as a tie or slightly favoring Trump.
- Harris has a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College.
- RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump may impact her in Rust Belt states.
- Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, but there’s speculation about Josh Shapiro.
Not disputing the he’s an idiot, but 28% likelihood events happen about once out of every three times on average.
The image below is not direct an indication that he’s an idiot. That stuff that he writes in his book and that pours out of his mouth, yes, that’s another matter.
Yeah, I think people confuse win probabilities with polling percentages.
If a pollster predicted that ten races each had a Democratic win probability of 70%, and the Democrats won all ten of those races, that prediction would be wrong—as wrong as if the Republicans won six of the races.