No, there really is a looming depopulation problem. The US and most developed countries have birth rates below replacement value. That’s masked by previous generations so population is still growing, but that also means a sharper drop off when current generations age out of the population in a couple decades. It could be very disruptive to all developed countries and the global economy.
US still has a growing population based on higher immigration than other developed countries. You can’t apply that in general because people have to come from somewhere, but That’s what’s going to save us.
Clearly anyone concerned about the depopulation crisis will welcome immigration and encourage more of it, right?
As long as there is positive global population growth (there is), and as long as the USA is an inviting country for immigrants to come to, the USA doesn’t have a population problem.
Very true, but you’re depending on things that are not predictable. It can stop at any time. It is highly variable, depending on unrest in other countries.
We also have half the population that wants to stop or greatly reduce immigration, regardless of the consequences. What if people stop coming in response to all the animus? We’re working against our own future.
Plus it can’t apply to most countries, and it will slow down as more countries stop growing their population
Very true, but you’re depending on things that are not predictable. It can stop at any time. It is highly variable, depending on unrest in other countries.
The strength of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency depends on the same things. If the rest of the world suddenly starts looking attractive, we’ll have a problem on both fronts. So far, it looks like we’ll be okay as long as we avoid the fascism.
We also have half the population that wants to stop or greatly reduce immigration, regardless of the consequences.
Half the active voters not the population. Its a small fraction of active voters on both sides that are setting policy, not the entire population.
What if people stop coming in response to all the animus? We’re working against our own future.
I don’t like the anti-immigration rhetoric. We’re a nation of immigrants, and that is a huge strength. However, I’m not terribly worried about the flow of immigration stopping. As bad as we are, huge swaths of the world are much worse, which makes the USA still look attractive.
Plus it can’t apply to most countries, and it will slow down as more countries stop growing their population.
There will be winners and losers. Those nations that eschew immigrants or embrace xenophobia are going to have a bad time.
The strength of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency depends on the same things. If the rest of the world suddenly starts looking attractive, we’ll have a problem on both fronts
That’s a whole ‘bother potential disaster in the making. The US Dollar got where it is based on a large and strong economy, economic leadership and alliances, and complete trustworthiness. Now we’re ballooning our debt thinking being a reserve currency absolves us from fiscal responsibility, that we can spend without growing our economy, that our past means we don’t need to invest in our future.
Meanwhile Chinas economy is still growing faster than any in history, they are second biggest and climbing. Much of the developing world is now in their debt. They could be a contender.
Are we really sleeping while potentially throwing away that position just when our debt is skyrocketing? Can you imagine the austerity measures if we had to catch up to tens of $Ts
That’s a whole ‘bother potential disaster in the making. The US Dollar got where it is based on a large and strong economy, economic leadership and alliances, and complete trustworthiness.
I think you have a bit of a skewed view on that. What you listed is public reasoning, but it isn’t the real strength of the dollar. Its strength is: there isn’t a better choice.
We can certainly screw that up, and we’ve gotten pretty darn close with Congress’s threats of default, but so far, we haven’t.
Now we’re ballooning our debt thinking being a reserve currency absolves us from fiscal responsibility, that we can spend without growing our economy, that our past means we don’t need to invest in our future.
Our economy still is growing though. Besides 2020 for COVID, its been on a steady climb since forever. This is part of that “there isn’t a better choice” part. Lots and lots of other countries haven’t been able to accomplish that.
Meanwhile Chinas economy is still growing faster than any in history, they are second biggest and climbing. Much of the developing world is now in their debt. They could be a contender.
They absolutely could be, but they do some shady backroom currency manipulation. Of all the sins of the US economic system, all the manipulation we do right out front in public in trusted published reports. China can’t claim the same. So while our currency usage isn’t stratospheric growth all the time, there’s a more important factor that investors in sovereign debt look for: predictability. The USA largely has this.
No, there really is a looming depopulation problem. The US and most developed countries have birth rates below replacement value. That’s masked by previous generations so population is still growing, but that also means a sharper drop off when current generations age out of the population in a couple decades. It could be very disruptive to all developed countries and the global economy.
US still has a growing population based on higher immigration than other developed countries. You can’t apply that in general because people have to come from somewhere, but That’s what’s going to save us.
Clearly anyone concerned about the depopulation crisis will welcome immigration and encourage more of it, right?
Right?
As long as there is positive global population growth (there is), and as long as the USA is an inviting country for immigrants to come to, the USA doesn’t have a population problem.
Very true, but you’re depending on things that are not predictable. It can stop at any time. It is highly variable, depending on unrest in other countries.
We also have half the population that wants to stop or greatly reduce immigration, regardless of the consequences. What if people stop coming in response to all the animus? We’re working against our own future.
Plus it can’t apply to most countries, and it will slow down as more countries stop growing their population
The strength of the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency depends on the same things. If the rest of the world suddenly starts looking attractive, we’ll have a problem on both fronts. So far, it looks like we’ll be okay as long as we avoid the fascism.
Half the active voters not the population. Its a small fraction of active voters on both sides that are setting policy, not the entire population.
I don’t like the anti-immigration rhetoric. We’re a nation of immigrants, and that is a huge strength. However, I’m not terribly worried about the flow of immigration stopping. As bad as we are, huge swaths of the world are much worse, which makes the USA still look attractive.
There will be winners and losers. Those nations that eschew immigrants or embrace xenophobia are going to have a bad time.
That’s a whole ‘bother potential disaster in the making. The US Dollar got where it is based on a large and strong economy, economic leadership and alliances, and complete trustworthiness. Now we’re ballooning our debt thinking being a reserve currency absolves us from fiscal responsibility, that we can spend without growing our economy, that our past means we don’t need to invest in our future.
Meanwhile Chinas economy is still growing faster than any in history, they are second biggest and climbing. Much of the developing world is now in their debt. They could be a contender.
Are we really sleeping while potentially throwing away that position just when our debt is skyrocketing? Can you imagine the austerity measures if we had to catch up to tens of $Ts
I think you have a bit of a skewed view on that. What you listed is public reasoning, but it isn’t the real strength of the dollar. Its strength is: there isn’t a better choice.
We can certainly screw that up, and we’ve gotten pretty darn close with Congress’s threats of default, but so far, we haven’t.
Our economy still is growing though. Besides 2020 for COVID, its been on a steady climb since forever. This is part of that “there isn’t a better choice” part. Lots and lots of other countries haven’t been able to accomplish that.
They absolutely could be, but they do some shady backroom currency manipulation. Of all the sins of the US economic system, all the manipulation we do right out front in public in trusted published reports. China can’t claim the same. So while our currency usage isn’t stratospheric growth all the time, there’s a more important factor that investors in sovereign debt look for: predictability. The USA largely has this.