@Rucknium taking the lead on analysis here.

check the paper he wrote re: the first wave on his git here

https://github.com/Rucknium/misc-research/blob/main/Monero-Black-Marble-Flood/pdf/monero-black-marble-flood.pdf

then on this wave - fat input transactions filling blocks on XMR chain :

Thanks for mentioning my paper. It analyzed the privacy impact of an adversary owning many outputs. The transactions that are congesting the mempool/txpool now have many inputs. There may be a privacy impact of large many-input txs, but I don’t have a clear idea of what it would be, and it’s not the same as a standard black marble flood.