• FiniteBanjo
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    3
    arrow-down
    2
    ·
    4 months ago

    Polling is not an inferior source to your gut feelings.

    • assassin_aragorn@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      4 months ago

      You need to look at the actual statistical science. If you find 45% support for something, but there’s a 3% margin of error with a 95% conference interval, then there’s a 95% chance that the true value is anywhere from 42-48%. And that’s with a perfect, simple random sample.

      It has its uses, but you have to be aware of its limitations and caveats.

      • FiniteBanjo
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        1
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        4 months ago

        But whats the interval on shit you just make up? Probably not as good a source as the polling.

        • assassin_aragorn@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          4 months ago

          Are you just arguing for the sake of arguing? I’m saying that even a perfect sample will not necessarily lead to an accurate conclusion, and having a perfect sample is incredibly difficult on top of that.

          Now factor in a major event occurring, and people’s opinions and thoughts being in flux. To properly gauge mood, you need to give people time to process – hence why immediate polling is not helpful.

          You do realize that the person you originally responded to was saying that polls probably aren’t helpful right now, not that polls are universally useless?

          • FiniteBanjo
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            4 months ago

            Check the context of this thread. Then my words will make more sense and your point reveals itself to be coping to reaffirm unscientific bias.