Aukus had a less than immaculate conception. It was conceived in secrecy and born in haste, a tribute to political opportunism and a travesty of disciplined planning. The enthusiasm of theatrical announcements notwithstanding, it was in trouble from the beginning. The US Navy had serious doubts about both the ability of US shipbuilders to deliver submarines in any workable timeframe and the ability of the Royal Australian Navy to integrate and operate them. That was not a question of trust but of capacity – on both sides.
And, of course, experienced and well-informed Australian defence planners rang the warning bells from the beginning.
Is it just sunk cost fallacy at this point or do they know something we don’t? There have been red flags for so long now that it will be a major embarrassment if AUKUS genuinely dies and we have no Plan B. “B-b-but the Coalition started it!!!” won’t cut it as an excuse for a second-term Labor government.
I’ve often wondered if there is more to it that is classified or whatever. Albo was not a fan of it, then got a briefing and very quickly signed onto it without any public or even party debate. That stood out to me at the time, and has everytime it comes up since.
Yup, the US was a much more reliable partner in the past but then usians supported/allowed the mango Mussolini win a second term.
Even prior to that Pillar 1 seemed like a horrific deal for Australia. The serious question marks over whether the submarines would ever actually be delivered, let alone on time, existed all through the Biden administration too.