This is like asking when the socialist revolution will happen in the Qing dynasty. And as history showed us, the answer was never because the Qing dynasty had to fall before the old Confucian-Daoist-Legalist-Buddhist ideological superstructure that had served China so well for over a millennia was broken, creating an ideological void that was filled by the May Fourth Movement, which was the seed that eventually became the CPC.

If you’re asking about a socialist revolution within the landmass currently occupied by the settler colonial entity known as the United States, I mean it’s socialism or barbarism. Barbarism will be either of the ecofascist variety, the nuclear wasteland variety, or the climate catastrophe variety. Assuming the US doesn’t get glassed by Russia or China in a future world war, most likely, the US will be balkanized into various successor states with a possible rump state that is still internationally recognized as the US. Successor states that have strong relations with anti-imperialist countries or arise from national liberation struggles led by the Indigenous and other internally colonized peoples will have a softish landing and be less fucked by climate change while successor states without those will spend their last days in completely depraved white supremacist Christofascism before getting wiped out by climate change.

Never. Republicans are openly fascist and the Democrats don’t want to admit that they’re fascist. The rest of America isn’t strong enough to do anything or doesn’t care enough. The US is going to implode on itself.

Never.

Amerika is a fundamentally white supremacist nation that can’t even bear talking about the atrocities of their history that led to their current state; let alone properly paying for it or restituting ANYBODY for being kidnapped from ancestral homes, for the destruction of our geneaological records, or for the manifold treaties they broke. When Turtle Island finally knows socialism, it won’t be as Amerika. Frankly, I’d say Amerikan whites don’t deserve it, either; like how dare you build your civilization the way you did then get to turn around and reap the rewards of civilized people?

Nah. Never. I see the country burning before that ever comes close to happening.

It’s an exercise in futility to predict revolutions. Lenin didn’t expect a recognition in his lifetime in 1917. History moves fast enough so any numbers in this thread are analy sourced at best.

For once I’m going to be reductive just to make things extremely simple and easy to see.

For a socialist revolution to take place in America, the American working class needs to be re-proletarianized.

Americans are living in more of a neo-feudal society under finance capitalism after the collapse of the USSR than the industrial capitalism of the 19th-20th century. Their labor are tied more to debt under finance capitalism than to production under industrial capitalism, which is a condition required to transform the proletariat into a revolutionary class who has “nothing to lose but their chains”.

As such, the American working class today is functionally more of a debt slave (their bullshit jobs have long been decoupled from production, a role that has been taken over by the Global South countries), not unlike a feudal peasant’s tie to their land.

One of the greatest ideological breakthroughs under Mao was land reform - it destroyed the peasantry’s feudal relation to their land and thus transformed the peasantry into a revolutionary class, that ultimately paved the way for the victory of the Communist Party.

How do you sever the relations of the American working class to their debt? There is only one answer: Wall Street must be destroyed.

And how do you destroy Wall Street? De-dollarization.

Only with the dollar losing its hegemonic status and denies the US empire from getting free ride from all the Global South countries, will American capital “retreat” back to their own shores for re-industrialization as they are being driven out of the Global South, and re-proletarianize the American working class along the way, ultimately leading to a socialist revolution.

Of course, this will be accompanied by a huge plunge in living standards after the US financial capital lost its hold on the labor and resources of the Global South, the civil war that will break out as the contradictions of Capital can no longer be contained, and the possibility of a global thermonuclear war if Capital is to lose its hegemony over the rest of the world.

In the face of falling living standards, how will your typical American workers react? Turn full Fascist and cling on to the last straws of Imperialism as it is being expropriated from the Global South, or turn toward Socialism and form solidarity with the working class all over the world to overthrow the bourgeois ruling class?

There is only one way to prevent Barbarism: you need a left wing movement in America that actually understands and utilizes theory to gain the foresight needed to plan ahead on what will eventually befall the country being torn apart by the contradictions of capitalism. Thus, the final battle lines will be drawn along the Ideological plane. The only possible future where Socialism will have the upper hand of prevailing.

Domestic proletariat seizing the state? Without any discontinuities like world war or climate change or balkanization, 2150 at the very earliest, but possibly never.

Proletarian elements establishing stealth enclaves that make the details of the government much less relevant? This coming decade.

I know which one of these I’m aiming for.

tomorrow at 5 o’clock. Please bring snacks.

In January 1917, Lenin thought the revolution would not happen in his lifetime. Conditions were very different then, but it’s a good reminder that life is unpredictable.

We of the older generation may not live to see the decisive battles of this coming revolution. But I can, I believe, express the confident hope that the youth which is working so splendidly in the socialist movement of Switzerland, and of the whole world, will be fortunate enough not only to fight, but also to win, in the coming proletarian revolution.

https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1917/jan/09.htm

I don’t think any of us are going to know when it’ll happen. Mao and the Chinese communists started out with like 17 people, grew to a few hundred, were obliterated back to 20 something, and this was all just 15 years or so before they took power.

The July 26th movement in Cuba went from around 3000 people in 1953 to about 150 over a year after the failed attack on Moncada Barracks, then 6 years later in 1959 they had seized the state.

Literally no one predicted the USSR would collapse in August of 1991. So it can be fun to speculate on things but there are so many parts that the best attitude to have is to be ready for anything and stay organized right now.

It won’t. America will stop being America first.

The US will slowly receded into the periphery, like Britain after WWII. It will grow incredibly more nationalistic between now and then. I think the military interventionism will start receding as well. It will become a tax haven and investment center for the financialization of industry in other countries. US citizen who want revolution will just leave and go to AES countries. As the monsters US capitalism created keep grinding their poor down, the wealthier reactionaries from those countries will immigrate to the US. We’ll get some unholy union of foreign born, multiracial striver ghouls from other countries making allies with domestic racists versus a wholly white and affluent liberal enclave. Nobels will have a little civil war as a treat.

As the climate issue becomes the forefront contradiction, the US-World contradiction will disappear. While China and other countries are fighting to save the species, the US will be a joke of a backwater shithole full of diseased and dying royals.

The world would have to look so unrecognizable for a Socialist revolution to succeed in the center of global capitalism, saying any bounded period of time is really just pulling numbers out of nowhere.

I personally believe there are at least 3 long term requirements for this event to happen: dedollarization, end of neo-coloniasm, and climate collapse. Capitalism cannot survive these, and they’re coming within the next century and a half or so (climate collapse will happen in half that time and inevitably bring about the others). In that time, though, we might literally just be extinct from nuclear Holocaust and mass starvation.

This from every direction:

Only after the United States has ceased to be in its current form, whether by civil war or invasion and occupation. Those are the things I think we can expect in our lifetimes. I’m hoping it’s the latter, I’d much rather live in territory controlled by China than some Christian nationalist militia

It must cease to be the USA long before any part of it can become socialist.

2040s at the absolute earliest assuming a catastrophic collapse of the empire that leads to widespread economic misery spreading even to the PMC class. Dedollarization must occur. Empire must fail to expand and turn inward, the material conditions must deteriorate enough and people in the core must overcome their inculcated atomization to organize enough.

Most likely much later than that, latter half of this century. Right now we’re turning solidly towards more reactionary politics, sacrificing trans people, doing racism against Russians and Asians, pushing back on the notion that women are people, etc and this has been a trend going on before Trump’s win by the way though obviously that gives liberals an excuse to continue and accelerate it. Assuming they fail to contain China, fail to subjugate Russia, and China achieves its own goals in the late 2040s or 2050 for a modern socialist society and a rejuvenated nation then as much as they try Americans will begin to learn of how much better things are in China and though the brainworms of individualism, the hyper-atomization of society and so on will keep things in check for a while if living conditions continue to deteriorate for enough people it has to happen eventually.

Non-zero even substantial risk that nuclear war happens first and they end the world rather than allowing their hegemony to slip and socialists to win.

Also exists a risk that climate change comes to bat and does the US empire a solid by hitting most of the world in the latter half of this century so much harder that the US can continue on entirely off importing the most desperate climate refugees in the world and exploiting them as an underclass while using its relative insulation between two oceans and its good farmland and other natural resources to thrive while other nations suffer and capitalism could continue into next century easily while China struggles on regardless.

Fact is though we’re in a life or death struggle here. The west knows it and will do everything. If they can create some sort of technology that allows them to adequately suppress Chinese nuclear response they’ll launch on China and wipe them out without hesitation to usher in barbarism. So let us hope China in fact gets the technology to check-mate and neutralize US nukes much sooner and either wipes the floor with the US in a war or prevents it ever coming to that as even in a conventional war lots of good Chinese comrades would die.