Biden needs to emphasize the risks of a second Trump term without annoying and alienating voters who are sick of hearing about him.

Joe Biden’s campaign is facing a strategic dilemma. Since the president’s job-approval ratings have been consistently low, his path to reelection depends on making 2024 a comparative choice between himself and Donald Trump, his scary, extremist predecessor. That task is becoming more urgent as evidence emerges that a sizable number of voters either don’t remember or misremember the four turbulent years of the Trump administration. But paradoxically, educating voters about the potential consequences of a Biden defeat could annoy and alienate them by pushing Trump fatigue to new heights.

  • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
    151·
    6 months ago

    I watched most of his speech to the NAACP, after verifying that you were right about him saying he was VP during Covid and it was just as bad as it sounded. He did mention the fact that Trump would be an objective catastrophe and that’s relevant, but I think people already know that; he actually spent most of the speech talking about what he’s done, which I think an overwhelming majority have no idea about beyond a handful of anecdotes. It’s actually so out of line with the popular perception that when he talks about his record (a lot of the same stuff I keep talking about here), it sounds weird and outlandish and comical because a lot of people just have never even heard of it before.

    I actually don’t think his campaign is depending mostly on “but Trump,” although I haven’t kept close tabs on it. Are you sure you’re not engaged in an effort to shift the blame for his poor performance onto some tactical failures in his camp whether real or imagined, as opposed to the news media which is overwhelmingly lazy and irresponsible at best, and at worst actively working to undermine him at every turn?

    • return2ozma@lemmy.worldOP
      515·
      6 months ago

      Whenever Biden or his team talks about the economy doing great, voters get confused because they’re not doing so great financially. Then Dem defenders tell them “the economy actually IS doing great so suck it up and vote Biden or you’ll get trump.” Not really a win for voter outreach.

      • mozz@mbin.grits.dev
        181·
        6 months ago

        So there’s a really interesting thing that happens with those polls.

        If you ask people how the country’s economy is doing, they say it is in the toilet. But, if you ask them how their state is doing compared to that national average, they say it’s well above average.

        There are a few different ways to interpret that, but one obvious one is that the situation they can directly observe isn’t as grim as what they see on the news, and so they assume that something weird happened, and the country is terrible (because they trust the news, or memes, or their friends’ Facebook posts, or whatever gives them their information) — BUT that they don’t see it reflected firsthand, because their environment is beating the average.

        There are other interpretations of course. It’s impossible to really say. And that is the problem with trying to use indirect qualitative measures to sort out how the economy is doing; you can always (as you did) reframe it into some un-falsifiable emotion based construction that leads only to one inevitable conclusion (things are bad and it’s all Biden’s fault and if you try to tell me numbers for why it’s not, then that makes it his fault even harder). But, I would still assert that measuring the numbers actually is a good way to see what’s happening.